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Candidate Cheon Ha-ram in close race with Ahn Cheol-soo
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[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunju Lee] The race for the People Power Party's March 8 party representative election has once again been turned upside down. Leading candidate Kim Ki-hyun, who topped various opinion polls, has seen his support stagnate due to allegations of land speculation in Ulsan, while Cheon Ha-ram, who entered the race late, has shown a sharp rise, overtaking second-place candidate Ahn Cheol-soo. After the TV debate, candidate Hwang Kyo-ahn also emerged as a key figure in the surge, and with just two weeks left until the party convention, the outcome is likely to be decided in a runoff vote.

According to a survey conducted by Realmeter on behalf of Media Tribune from February 21 to 22, targeting 1,004 adult men and women nationwide (including 413 People Power Party supporters), candidate Kim led with 44.0% support among party supporters. Although Kim maintained his lead outside the margin of error, his support dropped by 1.3 percentage points compared to Realmeter's previous poll (February 6-7). Due to recent allegations raised by candidate Hwang regarding the Ulsan land, Kim appears unable to secure the majority needed to win outright without a runoff. Meanwhile, Hwang's support rose by 7.6 percentage points to 14.6% compared to the previous survey.

Ahn Cheol-soo, Hwang Kyo-ahn, Chun Ha-ram, and Kim Ki-hyun, candidates for the People Power Party leadership (from left), are posing for a commemorative photo before the TV debate held at KBS in Yeouido, Seoul on February 22, 2023. Photo by National Assembly Press Photographers [Image source=Yonhap News]

Earlier, on February 15, during the first TV debate, candidate Hwang raised suspicions that a barren land Kim purchased in 1998 for 38 million won had become a KTX station area, now valued at 64 billion won at current market prices. He claimed that the planned road connecting to Ulsan Station was altered to pass through land owned by Kim, suggesting Kim's influence in the change. During the TV debate held the previous night, candidate Hwang pressed Kim over the Ulsan land allegations. Hwang also urged Kim to "resign from the candidacy for the sake of the president and the country."

Candidate Kim actively rebutted the claims. On the morning of the same day, Kim held a press briefing at the National Assembly in a 'fact-check' format, denying the claims of a 1,800-fold (64 billion won) capital gain and that the road plan was changed to pass through his forest land. He explained, "Research and feasibility studies were conducted twice in 2019 and 2021 during the tenure of former Ulsan Mayor Song Cheol-ho, and in both cases, the underground tunnel road plan was approved to pass beneath my forest land."

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The battle for second place is even fiercer. In the Realmeter poll released that day, candidate Ahn's support fell by 7.8 percentage points to 22.6%, while candidate Cheon's rose by 6.2 percentage points to 15.6%. Considering the survey's margin of error of ±4.8% at a 95% confidence level, the race is close within the margin of error. Another poll showed candidate Cheon ahead of candidate Ahn. According to a survey by People Networks Research (PNR) commissioned by PoliNews, conducted from February 21 to 22 among 505 responsible party members of the People Power Party (with a 2.6% response rate via 100% automated phone survey, margin of error ±4.5% at 95% confidence), Cheon led with 22.8%, surpassing Ahn's 17.9%. In this survey, Hwang was at 14.2%, closely contesting with Ahn within the margin of error, while Kim stood at 42.7%.

If no candidate surpasses the majority in this party convention, the party leader will be chosen through a runoff vote. Because of this, candidate Cheon confidently referred to a 'silver cross' (reversal of support rates between 2nd and 3rd place) and extended a hand for alliance by proposing to Ahn to jointly revive the Itaewon commercial district. Ahn's side rejected the offer, saying, "It is obviously forced for certain candidates to hold events together during the party convention."