Is Kim Joo-ae a Successor... or Is Kim Jong-un Just a 'Ddalbabo' (Dotting Father)?

Kim Juae's Rapid Rise Sparks 'Successor Speculation'
Jung Sung-jang "Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-un Also Demanded Name Changes"
Thae Yong-ho "North Korea Will Take Risks to Find a Son"

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] In North Korea, which has maintained a 'three-generation hereditary' system for over 80 years, could the first 'female leader' emerge in the fourth generation? Kim Joo-ae, the daughter of Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers' Party, has become a focal point of intense interest.

There are numerous clues suggesting that Kim Joo-ae has been chosen as the successor to Kim Jong-un, such as her stepping forward, pushing aside her aunt Kim Yo-jong, and even appearing on commemorative stamps. On the other hand, some analyses argue that it is not easy for a female leader to emerge in North Korea, where the 'Baekdu bloodline' is emphasized.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The term 'Honorable,' used only for the Suryong, also describes Kim Joo-ae

Jung Sung-jang, head of the Unification Strategy Research Office at the Sejong Institute, said on the 20th through the 'Sejong Commentary,' "Currently, I assess that Kim Joo-ae has been designated as the successor to the General Secretary," adding, "And at some point 10 to 20 years from now, Kim Joo-ae will be officially confirmed as the successor and entrusted with corresponding positions and authority, but for now, I believe she has just begun her training to become the successor."

The clue that Jung uses to assert Kim Joo-ae's designation as successor is the expressions used in North Korean propaganda media, such as the Rodong Sinmun. The Rodong Sinmun referred to Kim Joo-ae as 'honorable daughter,' a term used only for former leaders like Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il, as well as the current leader, Kim Jong-un. Additionally, North Korea's Korean Central TV used the expression that the Political Bureau Standing Committee 'served' Kim Joo-ae in a report on the 9th, implying that Kim Joo-ae holds a status just below Kim Jong-un.

Recently, the North Korean authorities have been forcing women registered under the name 'Joo-ae' to change their names, which is also seen as evidence that Kim Joo-ae has been designated as the successor. In the past, North Korea also demanded men with names like Kim Il-sung or Kim Jong-il to change their names.

Former Minister of Unification Jung Se-hyun also expressed a positive view of the 'Kim Joo-ae successor theory' on the YouTube program 'Kim Eo-jun's News Factory,' saying, "If she even appears on stamps, it means she is solidifying her position as the successor," and "No matter how poor the health is, because of age, it means she has started at least 10 years of successor training." Regarding concerns that Kim Joo-ae is too young, he suggested that the fact that Kim Jong-un himself was designated as a successor less than three years before inheriting power due to his father's death likely influenced this. It is explained as a preparation to start successor training early considering health conditions.

Maybe just a 'dotting father'? ... Successor remains uncertain

[Image source=Yonhap News]

However, some argue that Kim Joo-ae's early public appearance does not fit the North Korean style of succession. Kim Jong-dae, a former Justice Party lawmaker and expert in diplomacy and security, said on MBC's 'Kim Jong-bae's Focus,' "Designating a 10-year-old daughter as a successor already is very risky, even for the irrational North Korean system, and it does not fit the North Korean succession style," explaining, "The North Korean succession style is to hide it until the last moment and then suddenly reveal the successor."

Kim added, "For now, (Kim Jong-un) is just a doting father," and "Using the 'Baekdu bloodline' sacred family ideology, they provide a mascot to North Korean residents and a family spectacle that fits, through which they manage public sentiment and mobilize residents as a kind of production."

Former North Korean diplomat and People Power Party lawmaker Tae Yong-ho also expressed skepticism on CBS's 'Kim Hyun-jung's News Show' about whether Kim Joo-ae will actually inherit the leadership. Considering North Korea's past attempts to produce a male successor at all costs, it is not easy for a daughter to inherit Kim Jong-un's position. He said, "During Kim Jong-il's (National Defense Commission Chairman) time, the eldest son was Kim Jong-nam, but since he was born from an unofficial marriage, he could not be promoted, and all legally married children were daughters," adding, "So to install a son, they took an extreme step and brought in a third woman, who eventually became Kim Jong-un's birth mother."

He also pointed out that if Kim Joo-ae becomes the successor, the 'Baekdu bloodline' succession structure would change. Tae said, "If Kim Joo-ae advances and gets married and has children, from the mother's perspective, naturally, her own child would eventually become the successor. Then the entire bloodline structure would change." This means the position of North Korean leader, which has been passed down through the Baekdu bloodline, could shift to the bloodline of Kim Joo-ae's husband.

Park Won-gon, professor of North Korean Studies at Ewha Womans University, also said on YTN's 'News King with Park Ji-hoon,' "It is still too early to see her as a successor," and "Kim Jong-un is currently 40 years old and can rule for another 20 to 30 years, so if he appoints a 10-year-old daughter as successor, power could concentrate on that successor side," pointing out that in an authoritarian regime like North Korea, power dispersion cannot be tolerated even if it is a daughter.