[So Jong-seop's Sokterview] Jeong Seong-jang "It Is Certain That Kim Juae Has Been Designated as Successor"

Kim Jong-il Designated Kim Jong-un as Successor at Age 8
'Honorable' Expression Applies Only to Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un
7th Nuclear Test Likely in July or September

Kim Jong-un, the General Secretary of the Workers' Party of Korea (39), has designated his daughter Kim Ju-ae as his successor or not. This is a recent debate mainly among diplomatic circles. At this stage, no one can accurately confirm the facts. However, there is no disagreement that a very unusual situation is unfolding.

Kim Ju-ae (10) first appeared in an official setting on November 18 last year. Her appearance itself was dramatic. She appeared holding the hand of her father Kim Jong-un at the test launch site of the new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) 'Hwasong-17'. On the 26th of the same month, she appeared wearing a black coat and took commemorative photos with those responsible for the Hwasong-17 launch. On New Year's Day, photos were released showing Kim Jong-un inspecting the KN-23 ballistic missile. She also appeared at the 75th anniversary military foundation banquet on the 7th and the military parade on the 8th. On the 17th, she watched a sports game between Kim Jong-un, Kim Yo-jong, and officials from the Cabinet and Ministry of Defense.

Why is Kim Jong-un actively exposing Kim Ju-ae at this point? Since she even appeared on North Korean stamps, has the idolization process already begun? If not, what is Kim Jong-un's intention? Why does the first known son not appear?

To answer these questions, I met with Jeong Seong-jang, Director of the Unification Strategy Research Office at the Sejong Institute, on the 16th. He is an expert who has studied North Korea for over 30 years, having served as Director of the South-North Korea Relations Research Office and the North Korea Research Center at the Sejong Institute. In a 90-minute interview, Director Jeong asserted, "It is certain that Kim Jong-un has designated Kim Ju-ae as his successor." This differed from most experts who say "it is too early to judge." There were reasons.

Do you believe Kim Jong-un has designated Kim Ju-ae as his successor?

Yes. Many experts in our society fail to understand North Korea because they view it through the lens of South Korea. I have several reasons for this judgment. First, North Korea values two qualities most in a successor: loyalty and that they come from the next generation. There is no requirement that the successor must be male or the eldest son.

We can freely use expressions like 'honorable' or 'respected.' However, if you search the Workers' Party of Korea newspaper website, only three people have been referred to as 'honorable': Kim Il-sung, Kim Jong-il, and Kim Jong-un. They have never used the term 'respected' for Kim Yo-jong or Ri Sol-ju. But now, such expressions are being used before Kim Ju-ae's name.

Also, at the military parade, Kim Ju-ae sat in the center of the VIP seats. Korean Central Television reported, "The respected son of the Political Bureau Standing Committee members and secretaries of the Party Central Committee was seated in the VIP seats." The term 'seated' is used by subordinates for superiors. The Political Bureau Standing Committee members are among the top five highest-ranking officials, so in short, Kim Ju-ae's status is second only to Kim Jong-un. The commentary that "the beloved son rides the most beloved steed leading the parade" following Kim Jong-un's white horse is in the same context.

More notably, the slogans shouted by the parade participants were twofold: "Resolute defense of Kim Jong-un" and "Resolute defense of the Paektu bloodline." When shouting "Resolute defense of the Paektu bloodline," the screen showed Kim Ju-ae's face. In other words, it was a call to resolutely defend Kim Ju-ae. Although designated as successor, she has not been given any official position or authority. Whether it takes 10 or 20 years, she is receiving training as a successor. Since Kim Ju-ae holds no authority, there is no leakage of Kim Jong-un's power.

Kim Ju-ae (center) attending the 75th anniversary banquet of North Korea's Army Foundation Day (February 8) [Image source=Yonhap News]

It is known that Kim Jong-un has a son. Some doubt the designation of his daughter as successor.

You must understand that Kim Jong-un's style differs from Kim Jong-il's. Kim Jong-il did not easily replace officials who showed loyalty. Even if an official was hospitalized or unable to work, he was not replaced. This caused negative effects on the regime because those who had to make decisions could not perform their duties.

Kim Jong-un, who studied abroad in Switzerland for four and a half years as a child, has a different style from his father. He gives authority and responsibility, and if performance is lacking, he frequently replaces officials. Loyalty is basic, but incompetence is not tolerated. Since he demands results from officials, those who do not show performance by working actively cannot keep their positions. He likely values who among his children is the smartest and most capable rather than whether they are male or female, eldest or second son. Even if he has a son, if the son is like Kim Jong-chol, Kim Jong-un's older brother who prefers music and arts over politics and military, it would be difficult to entrust power to him.

Still, isn't it too early for Kim Jong-un, who is 39, to designate Kim Ju-ae, who is now 10, as successor?

No, it is not. Kim Jong-il designated Kim Jong-un as successor when Kim Jong-un was 8 years old. I heard this directly when I met Kim Jong-un's aunt (Ko Yong-suk) and uncle (Ri Gang) for three days in Washington, USA, in March 2021.

When I asked when Kim Jong-un was designated as successor, they said it was on January 8, 1992, Kim Jong-un's 8th birthday. At that time, in the presence of Kim Jong-il and his closest aides, the praise song for Kim Jong-un, "Footsteps," was performed, and Kim Jong-il told his aides, "My successor is Jong-un." When Kim Jong-un's uncle asked if it was too early since he was only 8, Kim Jong-il replied, "Because he resembles me."

Kim Jong-il preferred secrecy, not revealing his wife or giving public speeches. Kim Jong-un was only revealed after Kim Jong-il collapsed in 2008. In contrast, Kim Jong-un seems to have learned from Kim Jong-il's mistakes and revealed his successor early.

What does it mean that Kim Jong-un learned from Kim Jong-il's mistakes?

Although Kim Jong-il designated Kim Jong-un as successor early, he only revealed it to a few key aides, so even high-ranking officials like former Workers' Party Secretary Hwang Jang-yop had never seen Kim Jong-un before defecting to South Korea. After Kim Jong-il suddenly collapsed in 2008 and died in 2011, Kim Jong-un had a difficult time identifying North Korea's power elites and consolidating state affairs within a short three-year period. Because he was almost unknown then, the outside world speculated wildly before Kim Jong-un's emergence, with rumors like "Kim Jong-nam or Kim Jong-chol successor theory" and after Kim Jong-il's death, "Jang Song-thaek regency theory," all far from reality.

Kim Jong-un seems to have decided not to pass on the hardships he experienced to his successor. Although both designated successors at a young age, Kim Jong-il preferred secrecy, while Kim Jong-un likes public speeches and openly reveals his wife after marriage, adopting a direct approach.

Why reveal Kim Ju-ae at the site of an intercontinental ballistic missile launch?

They aimed to confuse the outside world. If Kim Ju-ae had been revealed without such context, there would have been criticism, but they carefully created an atmosphere to naturally accept the fourth-generation succession. North Korea is exposing Kim Ju-ae through a highly planned operation. Who is behind this? Kim Jong-un alone? No. It is the Propaganda and Agitation Department. Who leads it? Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the Workers' Party. It appears that Kim Yo-jong faithfully executes Kim Jong-un's intentions, planning and promoting Kim Ju-ae's appearance. The rumors about conflict between Kim Yo-jong and Ri Sol-ju are baseless speculation and fiction.

Kim Yo-jong has played a supporting role behind her brother Kim Jong-un at every important event so far. Planning and situation management are her specialties. The two share an interest in maintaining the Paektu bloodline's power. They lived together during their studies in Switzerland and lost their mother early, forming a close and mutually dependent relationship.

Director Jeong said that Kim Jong-un and Kim Yo-jong share the same interests, and Kim Yo-jong is faithfully supporting 'Kim Ju-ae's succession.'
[Photo by Yonhap News]

If power is inherited by Kim Ju-ae, it would be the fourth-generation succession...

When Kim Jong-un succeeded power, many said it would not last long. However, contrary to expectations, North Korea has grown into a threatening country possessing nuclear weapons and ICBMs. Having nuclear weapons and missiles means other countries cannot do much, and if international affairs continue to be polarized as now, North Korea can survive by cooperating only with China. However, if China moves toward democratization, it would be a shock and source of anxiety for North Korea. Just as the Soviet Union's democratization led to the collapse of Eastern European countries. From this perspective, North Korea's future largely depends on China. The ongoing US-China hegemonic competition works in North Korea's favor.

Let's also look at North Korea's situation. How do you assess North Korea's economic situation? There have been reports of people starving to death.

It does not seem that mass starvation is occurring, but the situation is certainly very bad. There are several reasons. First, reports have emerged of starvation deaths in Kaesong. Even if 4-5 people died of starvation in Kaesong, it is shocking. Kaesong maintained food distribution along with Pyongyang even during the 1990s Arduous March.

The fact that the Party Central Committee plenary meeting will be held again in February is also noteworthy. For years, the plenary meetings have been held every six months, with evaluations in June for the first half and in December for the whole year. But now, it will be held again after only two months to focus on agricultural issues. At the military parade on February 8, surprisingly, there was no special speech or aggressive message from Kim Jong-un. What does this mean? It is evidence that food problems are serious. There were expectations of a nuclear test around February 6 (60th anniversary of Kim Il-sung's "One Man Army" slogan), February 8 (75th anniversary of the Korean People's Army), and February 16 (Kim Jong-il's birthday), but it seems to have been postponed due to food shortages.

When do you expect North Korea to conduct its 7th nuclear test?

Not in March. Nuclear tests require not only technical needs but also political needs. Thinking that a nuclear test can be conducted anytime shows partial understanding. They will consider internal cohesion and effective political use. From this perspective, July and September are likely. July 27 is the 70th anniversary of the armistice, called "Victory Day" by North Korea. September 9 is the 75th anniversary of the founding of the North Korean regime. It is likely that a nuclear test will be conducted around these dates.

China currently opposes North Korea's nuclear tests. This is because nuclear tests could cause earthquakes in China's northeastern region, radioactive leaks, or volcanic eruptions of Mount Baekdu. China may not publicly declare this but could express dissatisfaction covertly. They might restrict supplies to North Korea or shut off oil pipelines under the pretext of construction needs. Nevertheless, as US-China hegemonic competition intensifies, China will have no choice but to embrace North Korea.

The world changed after Russia invaded Ukraine. Polarization is accelerating. Because of this, even if North Korea conducts a nuclear test, the UN Security Council will not adopt sanctions. An environment is being created where North Korea can conduct nuclear tests without worry.

Director Jeong analyzed that after the Russia-Ukraine war, as the world became polarized, an environment was created where North Korea could conduct nuclear tests without facing sanctions. Photo by Huh Younghan younghan@

Is it inevitable that inter-Korean and North Korea-US relations will remain cold for the time being?

Yes. Exchanges between authorities will be difficult for the time being. The 2022 Defense White Paper defined North Korea as an "enemy." An "enemy" is a target that cannot coexist and must be overthrown. "Serious threat" and "enemy" are different. It should have been expressed as a "serious threat." Because North Korea plans to exponentially increase nuclear warheads, it is difficult for us to actively improve relations. However, civilian exchanges and contacts should be actively supported. If separated families want reunions, they should be allowed under safety guarantees. If civic groups want to support North Korea, they should be permitted and regulations eased to open dialogue channels.

It seems North Korea's obsession with nuclear weapons goes beyond ensuring regime survival.

Correct. It has far exceeded the level necessary for survival. Even 20-30 nuclear warheads would suffice for regime survival, but they are aiming to become a nuclear power. They also show determination to achieve overwhelming military superiority over South Korea. It is currently impossible to preemptively strike all of North Korea's many missiles in an emergency. If conventional conflict occurs, North Korea might use tactical nuclear weapons to compensate for disadvantages.

Is North Korea deploying tactical nuclear weapons in the field?

They have already deployed them. They have expressed intentions to deploy them at the front and are proceeding with related unit reorganizations. They have also deployed super-large multiple rocket launchers capable of carrying tactical nuclear warheads at the front. Negotiations for denuclearization are now impossible. The US prefers maintaining the status quo, but the status quo is no longer sustainable. The US lacks the will, strategy, and capability to actively resolve the issue. They are treating the situation with inertia and say, "If South Korea acquires nuclear weapons, it will be difficult to control other countries from acquiring them, and the ROK-US alliance will weaken."

If there are signs of an attack, can we preemptively strike to neutralize it?

It is impossible. In the early 2000s, there was talk of "surgical strikes." When I visited the US Pacific Command in Hawaii then and asked, they said it was practically difficult because they did not know exactly where the weapons were hidden. Now, missiles are dispersed throughout North Korea's territory, and launch methods have diversified. Also, many military factories are located in mountainous areas near the China border in North Hamgyong Province, making identification and precision strikes difficult.

Then how should we respond?

Developing nuclear weapons is inevitable. However, it does not mean we must start development immediately. We should prepare. When the window of opportunity opens, we should move in that direction. No one knows if that will be in 2-3 years or 5-10 years. Being prepared allows us to seize the opportunity.

If North Korea conducts its 7th nuclear test, it must withdraw from the NPT (Non-Proliferation Treaty). While a member of the NPT, it cannot produce nuclear weapons due to IAEA (International Atomic Energy Agency) monitoring. After withdrawal, we must revise the ROK-US Atomic Energy Agreement to raise enrichment and reprocessing levels to those of the US-Japan Atomic Energy Agreement and negotiate with the US to provide nuclear-powered submarine technology. If we do not strongly demand this from the US, they may respond passively, so we must stand at the edge after withdrawing from the NPT and negotiate with the US.

Although the public desires nuclear armament due to anxiety over North Korea's threat, they do not want nuclear development. Therefore, we should revise the ROK-US Atomic Energy Agreement and request nuclear-powered submarine technology as Australia received. Article 10 of the NPT recognizes the right to withdraw in emergencies. Some say withdrawal would cause foreign capital to flee and severely damage our economy, but such a scenario will never happen.

Some argue that if we develop nuclear weapons, the risk of war increases. Others say we can rely on the US nuclear umbrella.

Unrealistic progressives claim that if we have nuclear weapons, arms races will accelerate and nuclear war risk will rise, but the opposite is true. Look at the US-Russia and India-Pakistan cases. It is an unwritten rule that nuclear-armed countries do not fight each other. Even if they fight, it is limited to local conflicts, and they must be careful not to cross certain lines.

The so-called extended deterrence, where the US protects us with its nuclear umbrella, will weaken in credibility as North Korea advances its nuclear weapons. If North Korea attacks South Korea with nuclear weapons and the US retaliates, North Korea will likely use nuclear weapons against the US. Although the US says it will protect us, the US Department of Defense's <2022 Nuclear Posture Review> mentions the "extended deterrence dilemma" regarding North Korea's nuclear weapons. The question arises whether the US can sacrifice New York to protect Seoul. Would the US accept millions of its citizens dying to protect the alliance? It would be difficult.

Director Jeong predicted that North Korea would conduct its 7th nuclear test between July and September, and argued that if North Korea carries out a nuclear test, we should withdraw from the NPT.
[Image source=Yonhap News]

Overcoming the US barrier to develop nuclear weapons must be a major challenge.

Convincing the US is most important. However, the US is not a single entity. President Biden would find it difficult to accept. But if former President Trump or a politician with a similar stance is elected, things could change. The US has tolerated Israel's nuclear development.

The world changed before and after Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The world is divided into camps. The great power cooperation system is not functioning. Even US opponents of South Korean nuclear development now say that if South Korea pursues nuclear development and China tries to adopt sanctions at the UN Security Council, the US would veto them. The US's firm opposition has softened compared to the past.

Would China be different? It retaliated during the THAAD deployment.

China experienced retaliation during THAAD deployment. Cosmetics, food, and tourism sectors were hit, but exports increased. South Korea and China already have significant interdependence in semiconductors and other areas. We must view reality coldly. China has no grounds to sanction South Korea. Didn't China fail to stop North Korea's nuclear development?

Is there a need for joint response by South Korea, the US, and Japan to North Korea's nuclear development?

We should consider establishing a trilateral mutual defense agreement among South Korea, the US, and Japan as the US desires. There are mutual defense agreements between South Korea-US and US-Japan, but none between South Korea and Japan. The US has been frustrated by conflicts between South Korea and Japan over historical issues. If we acquire nuclear weapons, we will gain confidence regarding Japan as well. Given the current situation, it is difficult to reverse the world's polarization. We cannot act independently. We must weigh pros and cons and choose the option with more benefits, even if there are some drawbacks. The other side is a matter of management.

Director Jung emphasized that in response to North Korea's nuclear development, the trilateral mutual defense agreement between South Korea, the United States, and Japan should be actively considered. Photo by Younghan Heo younghan@