[Global Issue+] Will Russia Really Launch the 'Spring Major Offensive'... "Possibility of Massed Infantry Tactics"

Tank 40% Loss... "80% Air Power Preserved"
Key Issues: Lack of New Recruit Training and Overcoming Supply Maintenance Challenges

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] As concerns rise that Russia will launch the so-called 'Spring Offensive' around the 24th, marking the first anniversary of the war's outbreak, international attention is focused on the situation. Although the Russian military is reported to have lost about 2,000 tanks and armored vehicles, nearly 40% of its total armored forces, it still maintains formidable air power, raising fears that the Ukrainian forces could be significantly overwhelmed.

[Image source=TASS Yonhap News]

Western intelligence agencies have yet to observe any clear signs of a large-scale Russian counteroffensive, but they warn that if command system confusion and supply issues are resolved, Russia could continue a powerful offensive. There are even concerns that the 'Human wave attack' tactic used by Chinese forces during the Korean War could be reenacted.

Possibility of 'Human Wave Attack' with Mass Mobilization of Fighter Jets and New Recruits

[Image source=TASS Yonhap News]

On the 14th (local time), Bloomberg reported that if the Russian military launches a spring offensive around the first anniversary of the Ukraine war, it could employ a human wave tactic by continuously deploying large numbers of conscripted troops to wear down the enemy. Earlier, the UK Ministry of Defence revealed that Russia has deployed about 97% of its army forces to the Ukrainian front, and the training of recently conscripted recruits is reportedly in its final stages.

Although the recently conscripted Russian recruits are considered inferior in quality due to lack of equipment and experience, the use of human wave tactics with these troops is feared to severely damage Ukrainian forces. Ukraine is already in a dire situation with about 20% of its territory in the east and south occupied by Russia, a large number of refugees, and over 100,000 casualties, leading to a severe shortage of troops.

Before the war, Ukraine's population was approximately 44 million, but it is now estimated that only about 27 to 30 million people remain within Ukrainian-controlled areas. About 500,000 people have been conscripted to defend the front lines, and additional conscription is necessary, but the number of young men eligible for conscription is critically low. In contrast, Russia, which has not yet declared a total mobilization, is in a position to conscript more troops.

Furthermore, despite losing about 40% of its armored forces, Russia still possesses strong air power, which could create a significant power gap from the Ukrainian military's perspective. According to the UK Guardian, "Russia still has over 80% of its air power intact," and "although there are no signs yet of large-scale air power mobilization, if deployed in an offensive, it would be devastating to Ukrainian forces."

Zelensky: "Only Weapons Can Accelerate Peace"... Urgent Request for Swift Support

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

The Ukrainian side is requesting rapid weapons support from the US and other Western countries. They argue that Russia's offensive could be stronger than expected, and even if some territory is conceded through peace negotiations, Russia may continue its offensive.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview with the UK BBC on the 16th, "Russia's spring offensive has already begun, and Russia is attacking from multiple directions," emphasizing, "Even if we concede territory, Russia will continue to attack, and only Western weapons can bring peace faster."

Experts believe that both Ukraine and Russia still have roughly equal forces gathered on the front lines, making it difficult for either side to break through as trench warfare continues.

Ben Barry, a ground warfare expert at the UK International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said in an interview with major foreign media, "I am skeptical that Russia will make noticeable progress," adding, "It will be difficult for Russia to gather enough competent troops to push Ukraine back. However, it is also unclear whether Ukraine has sufficient combat power to quickly repel Russian forces, so this year is expected to be bloody."