"China's COVID-19 Death Toll Could Reach Up to 1.7 Million"

NYT Report
Official Chinese Statistics Show 83,150 People

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Haeyoung] Research by infectious disease experts suggests that the number of COVID-19 deaths in China could reach up to 1.7 million.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

On the 15th (local time), the US New York Times (NYT) reported, citing studies by infectious disease experts from the US, UK, Hong Kong, and others, that the actual number of deaths from COVID-19 in China is likely far higher than the 83,150 officially announced by Chinese authorities.

Based on statistics from Chinese authorities, since the outbreak of COVID-19 in 2020, about 6 out of every 100,000 people in China have died from the virus. This death rate is even lower than Singapore’s, which is considered the most successful country in the world in managing COVID-19, where 30 out of every 100,000 people died.

However, according to a recent study by a research team at the University of Hong Kong, the actual number of COVID-19 deaths in China is estimated to be between 800,000 and 1.1 million. This estimate was calculated by applying various statistics, such as age-specific fatality rates extracted during COVID-19 surges in countries worldwide, to China’s population.

There is also an analysis suggesting that the number of COVID-19 deaths in China could reach as high as 1.7 million. Infectious disease experts from the University of Texas and the University of Hong Kong made this estimate based on the assumption that 90% of China’s 1.4 billion population was infected during the COVID-19 spread. Even considering that fatality rates may vary depending on vaccine effectiveness, the death toll is estimated to exceed 1.2 million. Last month, Wu Zunyou, a government-affiliated scholar from China’s epidemic prevention authorities, stated on Weibo that 80% of China’s population had been infected with COVID-19. Taking this into account, the NYT evaluated the research team’s assumption of a 90% infection rate as realistic.

Additionally, Jeffrey Shaman, a professor at Columbia University, estimated that applying the US fatality rate of 0.15% during the pandemic would result in 900,000 to 1.4 million deaths in China. Even if the infection rate is conservatively estimated at 40?65%, despite controversies over the so-called ‘water vaccine,’ the death toll would still reach around 1 million.