Projections Suggest Death Toll May Exceed 100,000
[Asia Economy Reporter Yujin Cho] The death toll from the worst earthquake ever recorded to hit T?rkiye (Turkey) and Syria has surpassed 11,600. With the 'golden time' for rescue operations running out, the number of fatalities is increasing by the minute, leading to projections that the disaster may surpass the damage caused by the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake.
According to AP News and others on the 8th (local time), Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an announced that on the third day after the earthquake, the death toll in T?rkiye reached 9,057, with 52,979 injured. The death toll reported by Syrian authorities and rebel groups in the border country has exceeded 2,600. Based on these figures, foreign media including AP reported that the combined death toll in both countries has surpassed 11,600, making this earthquake the eighth deadliest earthquake of the 21st century. The seventh deadliest was the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (18,500 deaths). In T?rkiye, the death toll is rising continuously from thousands of building rubble, so it is possible that this number will be exceeded.
Earlier, the World Health Organization (WHO) predicted that the total death toll from this earthquake could exceed 20,000. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) estimated a 14% chance that the death toll could exceed 100,000. USGS had previously estimated a 47% probability that the death toll would reach up to 10,000 immediately after the earthquake. The exponential increase in estimated deaths indicates that the situation is rapidly deteriorating.
Experts consider the first 72 hours after a natural disaster as the 'golden time' for rescue operations. Dr. Steven Godby, a natural disaster expert at Nottingham Trent University in the UK, pointed out, "The survival rate is 74% within 24 hours, but it drops sharply to 22% after 72 hours," adding, "By the fifth day, the survival rate is only 6%."
On the 8th (local time), rescue operations are underway among the severely collapsed buildings in the downtown area of Hatay City, southern Turkey. [Image source=AP Yonhap News]
Based on the first earthquake that occurred in the early morning of the 6th, with the golden time running out, public anger is growing over the Turkish government's 'delayed response.' Since 1999, earthquake taxes have been collected, but criticism of the authorities' inadequate response in this situation is intensifying, worsening public sentiment. It is estimated that T?rkiye has collected a total of 88 billion lira (approximately 5.9 trillion won) from earthquake taxes so far. As criticism of the government's inadequate earthquake response grows, Turkish authorities have taken measures to control public opinion, including blocking access to Twitter.
President Erdo?an visited the earthquake damage site on the same day and emphasized, "What is needed now is unity." He said, "There were problems with roads and airports, but they have been improved today," and added, "There are still fuel supply issues, but we will overcome them."
T?rkiye Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) announced that even if the identity of the bodies is not confirmed, burial procedures will be carried out within five days of discovery. AFAD explained that DNA samples and fingerprints will be collected for future identification.
The situation in Syria, which is effectively in a state of anarchy due to civil war, is much worse. The Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, which is under Western sanctions, reportedly requested support from the European Union (EU) on the same day. Janez Lenar?i?, the EU Commissioner for Humanitarian Aid and Crisis Management, recommended member states provide medical supplies and food, stating that they will monitor to ensure that aid is not diverted to the Assad regime.
The international community has expressed willingness for rapid recovery, and rescue teams from 65 countries worldwide have been dispatched. South Korea's overseas emergency relief team (KDRT) arrived at Gaziantep International Airport in southeastern T?rkiye on the morning of the same day. The relief team plans to conduct search and rescue operations in the Hatay region. President Erdo?an introduced, "Currently, relief teams from 18 countries are in Hatay Province."
Syria is being actively assisted by its allies Russia and Iran. Relief supplies have also been arriving one after another from neighboring countries such as Qatar, Oman, Lebanon, and Iraq, and China announced support plans while urging the United States to lift sanctions on Syria. Bassam Sabbagh, Syria's ambassador to the United Nations, claimed, "Due to sanctions by the US and EU, many planes and cargo transports refuse to land at Syrian airports. Because of this, countries attempting to provide humanitarian aid are unable to use transport planes."
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