Kim Jong-un Appears After 37 Days... "War Preparations Complete"
Counter-Strategy Against Strengthened US-ROK Extended Deterrence
'Missile General Bureau' Spotted... Organization Dedicated to Ballistic Missiles
[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] Ahead of a large-scale military parade, North Korean State Affairs Commission Chairman Kim Jong-un, who appeared for the first time this year, expressed his determination to thoroughly confront the South Korea-U.S. alliance by even mentioning 'war preparations.' Notably, a flag inscribed with 'Missile General Bureau,' presumed to be a nuclear and missile-specialized organization, was spotted for the first time, prompting relevant authorities to analyze the organization's actual status.
According to the Korean Central News Agency on the 7th, the 4th Enlarged Meeting of the 8th Central Military Commission of the Workers' Party was held the previous day at the Party Central Committee headquarters. It has been about seven months since North Korea convened the Central Military Commission, following the 3rd Enlarged Meeting of the 8th term held over three days starting June 21 last year. It was also the first time in 37 days that Chairman Kim appeared in public since his speech at the 600mm multiple launch rocket system presentation ceremony on December 31 last year.
The agency explained, "Comrade Kim Jong-un led the 4th Enlarged Meeting of the 8th Central Military Commission of the Party," adding, "In response to the prevailing situation, issues such as continuously expanding and strengthening operational combat training of the People's Army and more strictly completing war readiness posture were studied and discussed, and corresponding decisions were adopted."
Why Did Kim Jong-un Appear After 37 Days and Mention 'War Preparations'?
North Korea, Central Military Commission "Expands and Strengthens Operational Combat Training for Situation Response" [Image source=Yonhap News]
Chairman Kim personally presiding over the Central Military Commission and emphasizing the 'completion of war readiness posture' is interpreted as a demonstration of his determination to thoroughly respond to the strengthening security cooperation between South Korea, the U.S., and Japan centered on the Korean Peninsula. Especially when connected with North Korea's announcement the previous day to convene a plenary meeting later this month with 'agricultural issues' on the agenda, some analysts suggest that this year’s national agenda is being pursued on two tracks: 'strengthening defense capabilities' and 'people's livelihood economy.'
An official from the Ministry of Unification told reporters on the same day, "This is a follow-up measure to implement the decisions of the plenary meeting and an intention to strengthen internal military unity on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the 'One Against a Hundred' slogan," adding, "Regarding the possibility of North Korean provocations, we are keeping various possibilities open and closely monitoring related trends."
The anniversary of the 'One Against a Hundred' slogan commemorates February 6, 1963, when President Kim Il-sung visited the frontline unit at Daedeoksan outpost and stated that one soldier must be responsible for a hundred, declaring, "The slogan of the People's Army is One Against a Hundred."
Hong Min, head of the North Korea Research Division at the Korea Institute for National Unification, analyzed, "The core of the discussion was how to establish war readiness posture in response to the enhancement of extended deterrence by South Korea and the U.S., increased frequency of South Korea-U.S.-Japan joint exercises, the U.S.-China confrontation phase, and the Russia-Ukraine war situation," adding, "The public disclosure of such discussions from the beginning of the year signals that the issue of responding to the South Korea-U.S. alliance was discussed in depth through an organized system and decision-making process, and it also serves as a pre-warning that responses will be made according to the readiness posture."
In particular, a flag inscribed with 'Democratic People's Republic of Korea Missile General Bureau' was spotted behind Chairman Kim in the recently released photo of the Central Military Commission's enlarged meeting, drawing attention. Until now, the organization called the Missile General Bureau has never been reported or mentioned in North Korean media, and this is the first time a flag has appeared in a photo.
The flag's emblem depicts a missile, presumed to be North Korea's latest intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) 'Hwasong-17,' flying above the Earth. At the center of the Earth is a rising red star, with space and atomic symbols stylized in the background of the missile. Part of the number '016,' believed to indicate the year of establishment, is identifiable on the flag, suggesting the organization was founded in 2016.
The year 2016, presumed to be the founding year, was marked by continuous North Korean provocations related to nuclear and missile activities. These include the 4th nuclear test in January, the launch of the long-range rocket Kwangmyongsong in February, submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) Pukkuksong-1 tests in April and August, and the 5th nuclear test in September.
Hong Min from the Korea Institute for National Unification explained, "The origin lies in the missile department under the 2nd Economic Commission in the early 2000s, which was expanded and reorganized into the Rocket Industry Department centered on Ri Pyong-chol in 2016, and then renamed the current Missile General Bureau," adding, "It is an organization responsible for procuring materials necessary for missile development, as well as production and management, and it appears to be supervised and directed not under the military but through a party department directly under the leader."
South Korean military authorities stated that they were already aware of the organization. Lee Sung-jun, spokesperson for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said at a regular briefing that day, "We have been aware of and tracking the Missile General Bureau," adding, "We are monitoring related trends closely."
North Korea's Military Parade Imminent... "Focus on Nuclear Multiple Launch Rocket Systems and Stealth Drones"
The 90th anniversary parade of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army held in North Korea last April [Image source=Yonhap News]
Signs of an imminent military parade are emerging ahead of the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army (Army Foundation Day) on the 8th. There are also expectations that a super-large multiple launch rocket system capable of carrying nuclear warheads and stealth drones will be showcased.
According to a report by Radio Free Asia (RFA) on the same day, former U.S. Forces Korea Commander Robert Abrams said, "North Korea has showcased weapons it previously tested at military parades, and last year claimed successful tests of 600mm multiple launch rocket systems and cruise missiles," adding, "There is a possibility that new cruise missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads and 600mm super-large multiple launch rocket systems will be displayed at this parade."
Bruce Bennett, senior researcher at the U.S. RAND Corporation, predicted that stealth drones capable of carrying nuclear weapons might appear. He stated, "I heard that North Koreans in Moscow, Russia, are seeking stealth drone technology," and claimed, "Since these drones can be used to transport nuclear weapons, Chairman Kim Jong-un desires to possess them."
Additionally, images have been captured showing residents gathered at Kim Il-sung Square in Pyongyang forming numbers related to the military parade. Voice of America (VOA) reported, citing a May 5 satellite image from the private satellite service 'Planet Labs,' that large numbers '75' and '2·8' were formed in green and red colors respectively at Kim Il-sung Square. The clarity visible from space suggests that a large number of residents were mobilized.
Meanwhile, North Korea's military parade is the first in 10 months since the April 25 last year parade commemorating the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army (anti-Japanese partisan forces).
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
