First Poll Shows 8.6% in 4th Place
"2030 Men Have Fixed Votes"
Ahn Cheol-soo and Kim Ki-hyun Intensify Daily Clashes
[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Hyun-joo] Cheon Ha-ram, former head of the People Power Party’s Suncheon Gap branch in Jeonnam and a close associate of former party leader Lee Jun-seok, is shaking up the ruling party’s March 8 party convention. Cheon, who entered the party leader race late, is highly likely to pass the preliminary cut-off (4 candidates), emerging as a key variable in this convention. The focus is on the direction of the 'anti-Yoon (anti-Yoon Seok-yeol)' vote, which had been concentrated on candidate Ahn Cheol-soo following the withdrawal of former lawmakers Na Kyung-won and Yoo Seung-min.
Former leader Lee Jun-seok said in an SBS Radio interview on the 7th, "Around this time during the last party convention in 2021, I entered the first opinion poll with 13%," and evaluated, "The fact that candidate Cheon is starting at 8.9% with much lower recognition than me is meaningful." Ha Tae-kyung, a People Power Party lawmaker, also said on MBC Radio that day, "There is a fixed vote," adding, "20% of party members are newcomers in their 20s and 30s who joined along with the young party leader wave led by Lee Jun-seok."
Since candidate Cheon is causing an early stir, there is a view that he will make it into the top 4 candidates who pass the cut-off. It is believed that if party members supporting former lawmaker Yoo shifted their votes to candidate Ahn due to Yoo’s withdrawal, those anti-Yoon votes could move to candidate Cheon.
In fact, recent opinion polls show candidate Cheon ranking 4th in suitability for party leader. According to a poll conducted by research firm Jowon C&I from March 3 to 5 targeting People Power Party supporters, commissioned by CBS No Cut News (with a margin of error of ±3.1% at 95% confidence level), Cheon’s support rate was 8.6%, placing him 4th. Candidate Ahn Cheol-soo led with 36.9%, narrowly ahead of candidate Kim Ki-hyun (32.1%) within the margin of error. Candidates Hwang Kyo-ahn (9.3%) and Cheon were also in a close race within the margin of error.
The mudslinging battle between the leading candidates Ahn and Kim over 'Yoon’s favor' is also creating a favorable situation for candidate Cheon. Kim launched a fierce attack on Ahn the day before, even mentioning color politics, and on this day posted on his Facebook, "Do you still think there are no spies? Is Shin Young-bok a respected intellectual? Did the deployment of THAAD harm national interests? Do you still believe in the Sunshine Policy? Is dictator Deng Xiaoping really your role model?" After clashing head-on with President Yoon Seok-yeol over the 'AnYoon (Ahn Cheol-soo-Yoon Seok-yeol)' remarks and lowering his profile, candidate Ahn reaffirmed his intention to complete the party convention race. Kim Young-woo, head of Ahn’s campaign committee, appeared on CBS Radio’s 'Kim Hyun-jung’s News Show' that day, saying, "He is currently the most popular candidate, so why would he suddenly drop out? It’s not even in his mind," and added, "This time, it’s 'Ahn' Cheol-soo who will never withdraw."
Inside and outside the party, since a runoff vote between the top two candidates will be introduced if no one wins a majority, there is speculation that if candidate Cheon fails to place in the top two, his support votes may be absorbed by candidate Ahn. In a poll targeting People Power Party supporters, candidate Ahn still leads candidate Kim within the margin of error. According to a Next Research poll commissioned by MBN and Maeil Business Newspaper from April 4 to 5 surveying 308 People Power Party supporters on suitability for next party leader (with a margin of error of ±5.6% at 95% confidence level), in a head-to-head match between Kim and Ahn, 45.6% said they would support Ahn, while 37.2% said they would support Kim.
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