[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] The whirlwind of candidate Cheon Ha-ram, affiliated with the 'Lee Jun-seok faction,' is gaining momentum. For the first time, he ranked 4th in a public opinion poll that included his name. As a former non-incumbent party branch chairman, his surpassing of prominent veteran politicians to meet the 'cut-off (preliminary primary)' criteria demonstrates that the influence of former leader Lee Jun-seok, who is close to him, remains strong. Opinions differ on how far the 'Cheon Ha-ram whirlwind' will continue.
Cheon Ha-ram, Innovation Committee member of the People Power Party, is attending the Innovation Committee plenary meeting held at the National Assembly on the 5th. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@
According to a survey conducted by polling specialist company Jowon C&I on behalf of CBS No Cut News from the 3rd to the 5th, targeting 384 supporters of the People Power Party, Candidate Cheon received 8.6%, placing him within the top 4 cut-off criteria.
As a political newcomer, his securing a spot in the top 4, surpassing 5-term lawmaker Cho Kyung-tae (1.9%) and 4-term lawmaker Yoon Sang-hyun (0.7%), is attributed to the influence of former leader Lee, who supports him. Lee encouraged Cheon to run and exerted significant influence during his candidacy process. On MBC's 'Kim Jong-bae's Focused View,' Lee explained Cheon's motivation for running: "(I) encouraged him, and Cheon himself felt a sense of responsibility to step forward and speak out about recent situations."
Another factor behind the whirlwind is that Cheon is the only candidate among the party leadership contenders to position himself as 'non-Yoon (非尹).' The party's two leading candidates, Kim Ki-hyun and Ahn Cheol-soo, are openly known as pro-Yoon candidates, with Ahn also claiming to be part of the 'pro-friend Yoon faction.' Former Future United Party leader Hwang Kyo-ahn, as well as candidates Cho and Yoon, also identify as 'pro-Yoon.' In contrast, Cheon criticizes the presidential office's interference in the party convention and refers to key presidential aides (Yoon's core associates) as 'traitors.'
While candidate Ahn is experiencing stagnant support due to conflicts with the presidential office, attention is focused on how far Cheon's support, debuting at 4th place in the poll, will rise. Realistically, many view passing the cut-off as his peak, but members of the Lee Jun-seok faction are aiming for the runoff. Former People Power Party youth supreme council member Kim Yong-tae, running for the supreme council, predicted on CBS's 'Kim Hyun-jung's News Show' on the 3rd, "If a whirlwind occurs, it might even reach the runoff."
If the 'Cheon Ha-ram whirlwind' takes off, the candidate most affected in terms of support will be Ahn. While pro-Yoon votes tend to consolidate around Kim, Ahn's support base is stronger among centrists. Some of these non-Yoon-leaning votes are likely to shift to Cheon. On CBS's 'Kim Hyun-jung's News Show,' Cheon stated, "Ahn's collapse is not far off. There is nothing like a 'mysterious creature' in politics as much as Ahn's initial support." Former youth supreme council member Kim also said, "If the Cheon whirlwind happens, his support base will likely come more from Ahn's supporters than Kim's."
However, there are voices pointing out Cheon's limitations. On the 6th, Jowon-jin, leader of the Our Republican Party, said on YTN's 'News King Park Ji-hoon' that "He needs to cut ties with former leader Lee, but rising together is not right," adding, "The 'Lee Jun-seok card' has become more of a burden for Cheon. So there are limits."
He explained that not all 2030 party members support former leader Lee. Jowon-jin pointed out, "Many people joined the party during the presidential election to prevent the Democratic Party's regime continuation, and the angry 20s and 30s generation massively entered the People Power Party, not because they listened to former leader Lee."
Meanwhile, this survey was conducted nationwide among men and women aged 18 and over using an ARS poll (100% RDD method for mobile phones, proportionally allocated by gender, age group, and region through random sampling), with a response rate of 3.0%. The sampling error is ±3.1 percentage points at a 95% confidence level. For more details, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website.
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