[Asia Economy Yeongnam Reporting Headquarters Reporter Hwang Dooyul] BNK Economic Research Institute, affiliated with BNK Financial Group, announced the research report "2023 Southeast Region Export Outlook" on the 2nd.
According to the report, exports from the Southeast region in 2022 recorded $142.8 billion, an increase of 9.5% compared to the previous year, marking the highest performance in eight years since 2014. However, export momentum weakened as economic slowdown became more pronounced in the second half of the year.
Nationally, exports increased by 6.1%, showing a lower growth rate than the Southeast region.
The strong export performance last year was attributed to robust growth in petroleum refining by 81.0%, automobiles by 15.2%, and steel by 7.3%. Conversely, shipbuilding declined by 28.3%, petrochemicals by 3.3%, and machinery by 0.2%.
Exports from the Southeast region in 2023 are expected to reach $145 billion, a 1.5% increase from the previous year. Despite global import and demand slowdown, sluggish G2 economies, and exchange rate declines, shipbuilding is anticipated to rebound significantly, and automobiles are also expected to increase, driving regional exports.
Shipbuilding is projected to record $20.4 billion, a 47.5% increase from the previous year, as deliveries of the large volume of orders secured during 2021?2022 begin in earnest. LNG carriers and large container ships, which saw concentrated orders in 2021, are expected to lead the export growth.
Automobiles are expected to achieve $25.8 billion, a 1.7% increase from the previous year, supported by expanded demand in major countries and increased global market share. However, the growth rate is expected to be modest due to global economic slowdown, reduced exchange rate effects, intensified competition among companies, and the implementation of the IRA.
Petroleum refining is expected to reach $25.7 billion, a 10.0% decrease, due to falling export unit prices caused by oil price stabilization and a base effect, despite anticipated strong exports of jet fuel driven by increased mobility demand following the easing of COVID-19.
Petrochemicals are forecasted to record $10 billion, an 11.2% decrease from the previous year, due to downside risks such as increased production capacity and self-sufficiency in China, the largest export market, global oversupply, weakened demand in downstream industries, and reduced price competitiveness caused by falling natural gas prices.
Steel exports are expected to remain at $6.6 billion, an 11.4% decrease. This is attributed to global economic slowdown limiting demand growth in major countries to below 1%, and steel prices, which surged from the second half of 2021, stabilizing.
Machinery exports are projected to decline by 1.0% to $14.7 billion. Construction machinery is expected to see a slight increase, but machine tools are forecasted to decrease significantly due to global manufacturing slowdown, deteriorating consumer sentiment, and reduced facility investment.
Lee Geul, a research fellow at BNK Economic Research Institute, stated, "Although concerns about domestic and international economic slowdown are high, exports from the Southeast region are expected to continue growing, serving as a pillar for the regional economy. In particular, if the Chinese economy recovers rapidly due to the reopening effect, it is expected to greatly help expand exports."
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