Chinese Expert: "COVID-19 to Reach Second Peak Between March and May"

[Asia Economy Beijing=Special Correspondent Kim Hyunjung] There is a forecast that the number of COVID-19 cases in China could surge again from March to May this year.

On the 1st, China’s Changjiang Daily (長江日報) reported through an interview with Professor Xing Mingyu of the Infectious Diseases Department at Tongji Hospital affiliated with Huazhong University of Science and Technology, stating, "Most people have already been infected and have antibodies in their bodies, so the COVID-19 infection rate is showing a downward trend," and "the peak of the second wave of infections will be from March to May."

The number of COVID-19 cases in China peaked last month and has recently entered a stabilization phase. The number of confirmed COVID-19 cases in China increased from December 9 to 22 last year, reaching 6.94 million, and has been continuously decreasing since the 23rd. Although there were initial forecasts that the number of confirmed cases would surge during the Spring Festival (Chunje, the Chinese New Year) period from January 21 to 27, the local epidemic prevention situation is reportedly showing a stable trend, according to the media.

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

Professor Xing said, "The antibody levels in the body remain relatively high for 3 to 6 months, so the probability of reinfection in the short term is only 2%. However, after that, antibody levels gradually decrease, and in a populous country like China, new virus mutations are very likely to appear during that process, increasing the possibility of reinfection." He added, "People may not strongly feel this peak, and unlike the COVID-19 spread in December, it may pass with only asymptomatic or mild symptoms."

He also emphasized, "Since COVID-19 is transmitted through respiratory droplets, wearing masks remains the most important personal health defense line," and "especially in crowded public places, mask-wearing should be mandatory." Furthermore, he added, "Even after infection, antibodies disappear after six months, so it is important to get vaccinated at that time."