Plan to Increase Military Forces to 1.5 Million by 2026
Concerns Over Prolonged War of Attrition Similar to World War I
[Asia Economy Reporter Yoon Seul-gi] As the war that began with Russia's invasion of Ukraine approaches its first anniversary, reports have emerged that Russian President Vladimir Putin is preparing a new offensive in Ukraine.
On the 27th (local time), Bloomberg News, citing sources familiar with the Kremlin, reported that a major Russian offensive could begin as early as February or March, and a new mobilization order to reinforce troops may be issued this spring. Previously, the United States and Europe promised to supply Ukraine with main battle tanks within months, suggesting that a Russian offensive could start soon.
On the 5th (local time), President Putin spoke with a 7-year-old boy from the Stavropol Krai region during the 'Tree of Wishes' New Year's charity event held at the Novo-Ogaryovo presidential residence on the outskirts of Moscow. Photo by EPA·Yonhap News
According to the media, Russia is pressuring Ukraine and Western allies to agree to its own ceasefire plan that would allow it to maintain control over the currently occupied Ukrainian territories, while preparing a large-scale attack operation to regain the initiative.
Currently, President Putin appears to believe that deploying additional troops will secure victory. In fact, on the 17th, the Russian Ministry of Defense announced a plan to increase military personnel to 1.5 million by 2026, and on the 19th, President Putin visited an air defense missile manufacturing plant in Saint Petersburg, Russia, where he expressed confidence by stating, "Victory in the Ukraine war is certain."
Regarding this, Tatiana Stanovaya, a Russian political expert residing in France, said, "Putin is disappointed with the progress of the war but is not ready to abandon his goals," adding, "This means the process of achieving his goals will be longer, bloodier, and worse for everyone."
However, intelligence officials from the United States and Europe have expressed doubts about Russia's capacity to continue the war. Russia already mobilized an additional 300,000 troops last autumn. Moreover, Western countries such as the United States and Germany have promised to supply Ukraine with world-class main battle tanks, which could further disadvantage Russia.
Amid these circumstances, as President Putin's determination to prolong the war continues, there are forecasts that the conflict could devolve into a prolonged war of attrition similar to World War I. Andrey Kortunov, chairman of the pro-government Russian think tank the Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), said, "Unless there are significant changes, we will see a war of attrition like World War I," adding, "Both sides believe time is on their side, so the war could be prolonged."
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