Despite 'Akyeon', Ahn Cheol-soo Shakes Hands with Lee Jun-seok
2030 Generation Accounts for 30% of 800,000 Party Members
Attention on Whether 'Idaenam' Variable Will Affect
Kim Ki-hyun Still in First Place
[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Ji-eun] With former lawmaker Na Kyung-won’s withdrawal from the race, the ruling party’s leadership election has formed a two-way contest between lawmakers Ahn Cheol-soo and Kim Ki-hyun. Attention is focused on whether former leader Lee Jun-seok, who appeals to the 'I-dae-nam (men in their 20s),' will extend a hand to Ahn Cheol-soo and create a 'dominance theory.' However, public opinion polls still show a close race between the two sides, each claiming the 'dominance theory.'
On the 26th, at the 'Pen & Mike 5th Anniversary Supporters Meeting' held at the Seoul Press Center, former leader Lee, who received the congratulatory speech microphone after lawmaker Ahn, said, "There were many parts I agreed with (in Ahn’s speech)" and extended his hand to him. The two also shook hands at the event.
Considering the 'bad blood' between lawmaker Ahn and former leader Lee, this is somewhat unusual. Their bad blood began when they faced off in the 2016 Seoul Nowon-byeong district election and worsened significantly during the 2018 local election 'nomination turmoil' in the Bareunmirae Party. Early last year, during the unification phase with the People’s Party, the unification almost collapsed due to Lee’s harsh remarks.
Despite their bad blood, the fact that Lee and Ahn joined hands ahead of the leadership election is significant. This leadership election will be conducted with '100% party members’ votes' due to revised primary rules. During Lee’s tenure, the number of People Power Party members surged from 300,000 to 800,000. Among these 800,000 members, men in their 20s and 30s, who make up 20-30%, could sway the results.
On the 20th, Jo Won-jin, leader of the Our Republican Party, pointed out on MBC’s 'Shin Jang-sik’s News High Kick,' "The People Power Party has not yet analyzed responsible party members. After the presidential election, about 400,000 joined, and about half of them are now responsible party members. Their political tendencies need to be tested through this leadership election process."
Former leader Lee also recently said during a conversation with Jang Sung-chul, director of the Center for Sympathy and Debate Policy, "If it goes to a runoff vote, the result may not be as the Yoon core group (Yoon Seok-yeol’s key associates) think," suggesting that 'pro-Lee Jun-seok' members who joined after the presidential election could influence the outcome.
If former leader Lee supports lawmaker Ahn, men in their 20s and 30s who lean toward Lee could consolidate their votes for Ahn, potentially forming an 'Ahn Cheol-soo dominance theory.' Ahn is also striving to win the hearts of the 'I-dae-nam' by holding 'policy meetings' with young people in their 20s and 30s and preparing related policies.
The possibility of an alliance between lawmaker Ahn and former lawmaker Na is also open. On the morning of the 27th, lawmaker Yoon Sang-hyun, who is forming a 'metropolitan area alliance' with Ahn, proposed via social media that former lawmaker Na, who declared her withdrawal, become the 'co-chair of the metropolitan area election committee,' signaling an intention to strengthen the alliance.
Many of former lawmaker Na’s supporters, who have lost their direction, appear to be absorbed by lawmaker Ahn. According to a recent survey conducted by Realmeter commissioned by Media Tribune from the 25th to 26th of this month targeting 1,009 adult men and women nationwide, Ahn’s support rate among People Power Party supporters rose to 33.9%, up 16.7 percentage points from the previous survey (17.2%), ranking second. For detailed information, refer to the Central Election Poll Deliberation Commission website. In the stock market, AhnLab, a 'theme stock' related to Ahn Cheol-soo, has recorded three consecutive days of gains following former lawmaker Na’s withdrawal.
However, competitor lawmaker Kim Ki-hyun is also focusing on winning the hearts of the 'I-dae-nam' by proposing policies such as 'women’s civil defense training' and is working hard to form a dominance theory, employing a strategy similar to Ahn’s to check him. Kim still leads with 40.0% support among People Power Party supporters for party leader preference, and his clear status as a 'Yoon heart (Yunshim)' candidate is also a strength.
Although the party support base’s votes appear to have been absorbed by lawmaker Ahn immediately after former lawmaker Na’s withdrawal, some analyses suggest they will eventually lean toward lawmaker Kim. Former People Power Party Supreme Council member Kim Jae-won said on KBS1 Radio’s 'Joo Jin-woo Live,' "(Na’s withdrawal) I ultimately think it will be more advantageous to lawmaker Kim," adding, "(Ahn’s rising trend) is somewhat of a backlash." Most of former lawmaker Na’s supporters, who are 'traditional conservatives,' are unlikely to choose Ahn, an outsider.
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