First Poll After Na Kyung-won's Withdrawal
Kim Ki-hyun Down 0.3%P vs Ahn Cheol-soo Soars to 16.7%
Kim Ki-hyun's Winning Probability Nears 50%
[Asia Economy reporters Naju-seok and Kim Young-won] The competition for the party leadership in the People Power Party's March 8 national convention is intensifying. Following former lawmaker Na Kyung-won's announcement that she will not run, the race has narrowed down to a two-horse race between lawmakers Kim Ki-hyun and Ahn Cheol-soo, causing party sentiment to fluctuate. The verbal sparring between the two sides vying for party leadership is also becoming increasingly fierce.
According to a poll conducted by Realmeter on the 27th at the request of Media Tribune, excluding former lawmaker Na from the candidates and surveying support for the next leader of the People Power Party, lawmaker Kim led with 40.0%, but Ahn surged 16.7 percentage points from the previous week to 33.9%. The survey, conducted from the 25th to 26th, targeted 422 supporters of the People Power Party out of 1,009 total respondents. This applied the People Power Party's national convention rule of 100% party member voting.
This result is the first survey after former lawmaker Na's announcement not to run, with lawmaker Kim dropping 0.3 percentage points from the previous week. The difference between the two sides is 7.2 percentage points, within the margin of error (±4.8%P). It appears that the supporters of former lawmaker Na, who remained even after she distanced herself from 'Yoon-sim' (President Yoon Suk-yeol's intentions) by opposing the presidential office and the party's 'Pro-Yoon (Pro-Yoon Suk-yeol) faction' over low birthrate policies, have shifted to Ahn.
However, in this survey, People Power Party supporters estimated Kim's chances of winning the party leadership at 48.5%. Ahn was at 28.7%. This is interpreted as reflecting the voting convention of conservative party members who are expected to consolidate votes for the 'Yoon-sim candidate' to support President Yoon Suk-yeol's administration in its second year.
As the competition for party leadership heats up, the verbal sparring between the two candidates is becoming increasingly intense. The day before, lawmakers Kim and Ahn exchanged barbs over 'political turncoats.' The issue started when Kim said at a recent press conference, "I have never lived the life of a political turncoat or a politician who flits around here and there." Ahn, who founded the People Party based in Honam and later merged with the conservative party, indirectly criticized this, to which Ahn responded loudly, "Is it wrong to have unified with the (Yoon Suk-yeol) president to change the regime?" On the same day, their close aides continued a sharp war of nerves, criticizing each other for negativity.
On this day, the People Power Party leadership candidates began targeting regional party sentiment. Coincidentally, Ahn, who advocated the 'Seoul metropolitan area alliance theory,' and lawmaker Yoon Sang-hyun both visited the Chungcheong region to consolidate their voter base. Meanwhile, lawmakers Kim and Cho Kyung-tae visited their stronghold, Busan. After holding a press meeting with local Busan media, Kim attended the 'Busan Vision Presentation' at the Busan Dong-gu North Port Convention Center to announce his pledges and vision for the Busan region as a party leadership candidate. Ahn, after having a private meeting with Chungnam Governor Kim Tae-heum, attended a party member meeting in Hongseong and Yesan counties to appeal for support. Kim and Ahn plan to target Seoul party members' votes over the weekend.
The current party leadership election landscape appears to be shaping into a 'Pro-Yoon' versus 'Non-Yoon' factional divide. Former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok extended an olive branch to Ahn, whom he considers a 'political enemy,' saying at a media event the day before, "There are many parts I empathize with." This suggests that Lee's supporters, who have clashed with the Pro-Yoon faction, may consolidate their votes for Ahn. Because of this, there is speculation that the remaining variable in this convention?the decision of former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min to run or not?could change the election dynamics.
© The Asia Business Daily(www.asiae.co.kr). All rights reserved.
