[Column] Population Policy, Between Cold Rationality and Passion

[Asia Economy Sejong=Reporter Lee Jun-hyung] “With the employment crisis and housing shortage, it’s already hard enough to take care of myself, so who would want to have children?”

This comment was posted on an article about the ‘November 2022 Population Trends’ announced by the government the day before (26th). Population trends are statistics that tally the number of births and deaths in the country each month. These statistics help gauge how far the low birthrate and aging population phenomena have progressed.

The key point is the ‘unprecedented’ population decline. The domestic population has naturally decreased for 37 consecutive months since November 2019. As the comment shows, this is the direct result of the low birthrate crisis. The number of births in November last year fell below 20,000. The monthly number of births has fallen below 20,000 only five times since the related statistics began.

Since 2020, the domestic population has experienced a ‘dead cross’ for three consecutive years. This phenomenon occurs when the annual number of deaths surpasses the number of births. In fact, in 2021, the total population including foreign residents in the country decreased for the first time since the establishment of the government.

It is literally an unprecedented situation. Not only the low birthrate phenomenon but also the population decline is rarely seen in domestic statistics. This means that Korea’s ‘population cliff’ has become severe. When the economically active population shrinks, both production and consumption contract simultaneously, shaking the foundation of the economy. This is why calls for drastic measures to reverse the situation are growing louder.

The problem is that discussions on population measures have become distant due to the ‘Na Kyung-won incident.’ The incident began when former lawmaker Na, who served as vice-chair of the Low Birthrate and Aging Society Committee, mentioned ‘loan forgiveness’ at a press conference on the 5th of this month. This is a kind of Hungarian model, where the government forgives the principal of loans such as housing funds for newlyweds upon childbirth.

Some criticized it as populism. There were also concerns that childbirth could be reduced to a means of ‘debt tech.’ Perhaps for these reasons, the presidential office firmly refuted the idea, making loan forgiveness a non-issue, and Na’s political standing became precarious.

It is also true that a ‘radical remedy’ is needed as the population cliff approaches. This means unprecedented and bold measures are necessary. For this, bold ideas need to be proposed during the policy planning process, but recent events have stifled brainstorming itself.

This is not about judging the right or wrong of loan forgiveness. However, the boldness of the loan forgiveness idea, raised as a concept, was passionate. It is not too late to freely propose such ideas first and then evaluate their effectiveness. But the government’s response was excessively cold.

Although the Na Kyung-won incident has been settled for now, the population cliff is ongoing. The government’s coldness alone may cause it to miss the ‘golden time.’ In unprecedented situations, unprecedented measures must be taken. Usually, such measures lie between the cold rationality that considers feasibility and the passion that proposes bold ideas.