US Intelligence Agencies: North Korea Does Not Yet Feel the Need for a 7th Nuclear Test... No Urgency

[Asia Economy Reporter Kwon Haeyoung] The reason North Korea has completed preparations for its 7th nuclear test but has not yet conducted the test is because there is currently no necessity for nuclear weapons development or diplomatic reasons, according to claims from U.S. intelligence agencies.

Sydney Seiler, North Korea specialist at the U.S. National Intelligence Council (NIC) under the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), said on the 26th (local time) during an online discussion hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), "North Korea does not have any inherent urgency to meet an artificial deadline," explaining this.

South Korean and U.S. authorities believe that North Korea has been preparing for the 7th nuclear test since last spring and has completed the preparations, with only the final decision from Chairman Kim Jong-un remaining.

Seiler said that North Korea will decide the timing by comprehensively considering the necessity of a nuclear test at this point, diplomatic impact, and the effect on rallying its citizens. He stated, "North Korea has not conducted a nuclear test because Kim Jong-un does not feel the need. If North Korea’s goal is to demonstrate nuclear threats, then a nuclear test is not that important. Conducting a nuclear test would certainly refocus the international community on the North Korean nuclear issue."

He predicted that North Korea’s unprecedented provocations last year were foreseeable and that this year, it will continue to develop, test, and train with new weapons and capabilities. He especially expressed concern about the rapid advancement of North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities. He mentioned, "The range of actions Kim Jong-un can choose from is becoming enormously broad, and soon there will be actions that we will be completely unable to respond to."

He also viewed North Korea’s development of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) as not being for negotiation purposes with the U.S.

Additionally, Seiler said, "Simply deploying (South Korea-U.S. extended deterrence) capabilities on the Korean Peninsula does not necessarily mean it will escalate tensions to a level we should be concerned about," but he also assessed that "North Korea is fully aware of the overwhelming power of the South Korea-U.S. alliance and the U.S.’s determination to defend South Korea."

Furthermore, he diagnosed that external factors such as the deterioration of U.S.-China relations and the spread of COVID-19 are making it difficult to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue. It is difficult for North Korea to receive help from China, and North Korea may not be concerned about additional sanctions from the United Nations Security Council. COVID-19 has also caused North Korea to focus inwardly on domestic affairs.