Quantum showdown with 3·8 Front... Na Kyung-won's vote as casting vote

Traditional Party Member Support Expected to Favor Kim Ki-hyun
Rapid Increase in 2040 Party Members Changes the Situation
Yoo Seung-min's Candidacy Remains a Variable

[Asia Economy Reporters Hyunju Lee and Youngwon Kim] With former lawmaker Na Kyung-won declaring she will not run, attention is focused on the direction of the 'Dangsim (黨心, party members' votes)' that had supported her. Following Na's withdrawal, which was the biggest variable in the March 8 People Power Party leadership election, the race has narrowed down to a 'two-strong-candidate structure,' making Na's support base a potential casting vote.

According to political circles on the 26th, the prevailing analysis is that lawmaker Kim Ki-hyun will absorb Na's support base. Na, a four-term conservative party lawmaker and former floor leader during the Liberty Korea Party era, has a party foundation rooted in the 'traditional conservative faction.' This is why it is believed that the group that supported Na is likely to move toward Kim. Professor Shin Yul of Myongji University's Department of Political Science and Diplomacy said, "If Na's supporters backed her because of her metropolitan area and centrist image and high recognition, they might go to lawmaker Ahn, but ideologically, they align with lawmaker Kim."

Professor Park Sang-byeong of Inha University Graduate School of Policy also said, "Na's support base is fundamentally hardline conservative, so they absolutely cannot support lawmaker Ahn," adding, "Since Ahn joined the People Power Party late, it is premature to think Na's supporters would back him." Professor Park assessed, "Kim is a far-right politician who will target party members by leveraging strategies previously used by Lee Jun-seok and Yoon Seok-youl," and "since this is not a general public opinion poll, he has a chance of winning."

Former People Power Party lawmaker Na Kyung-won is leaving the party headquarters in Yeouido, Seoul, after holding a press conference on the 25th announcing she will not run for party leader. Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

However, considering that Na, who had maintained around 30% support in party member polls, retreated after conflicts with the presidential office and the pro-Yoon (pro-Yoon Seok-youl) faction within the party over the 'Hungarian-style low birthrate policy,' there is also a possibility that the remaining Na supporters may be absorbed by lawmaker Ahn Cheol-soo. While some of Na's traditional conservative supporters may lean toward Kim for party unity, among them, some non-Yoon faction party members might shift to former lawmaker Ahn.

In fact, in a public opinion poll conducted by Embrain Public on behalf of YTN during the Lunar New Year holidays on the 22nd and 23rd, among 784 People Power Party supporters nationwide, 25.4% preferred lawmaker Kim. Next were lawmaker Ahn with 22.3% and former lawmaker Na with 16.9%. Combining Ahn and Na's support rates approaches nearly 40%. Moreover, in a hypothetical runoff vote, newly introduced in this leadership election, 49.8% of People Power Party supporters chose Ahn, while Kim received 39.4%.

Inside and outside the party, with the number of People Power Party members exceeding 800,000?nearly tripling compared to the previous leadership election?and a rapid increase in members in their 20s to 40s, there is speculation that the leadership election dynamics could change.

Professor Kim Hyung-jun, special professor at Myongji University, explained, "Party members in their 20s and 30s might be more likely to vote for lawmaker Ahn than Kim, or might not vote at all," adding, "Also, party members from Daegu-Gyeongbuk (TK) and Busan-Gyeongnam (PK) show somewhat different tendencies. If the PK leads the 'Kim-Jang coalition,' there could be resentment from the TK side."

Kim Ki-hyun, a member of the People Power Party (right), is shaking hands with Ahn Cheol-soo at the 2023 Busan Expatriates New Year's Reception held at Lotte Hotel in Jung-gu, Seoul, on the afternoon of the 16th. 2023.1.16 Photo by Yonhap News

There is also a forecast that support for candidates may change during the upcoming election campaigns. Director Eom Kyung-young of the Era Spirit Research Institute said, "In conservative parties, the next presidential candidate or a leader with a compelling story is usually elected," noting, "Kim Moo-sung, Lee Jung-hyun, and Lee Jun-seok are all such figures." He continued, "Lawmaker Ahn has metropolitan area appeal, symbolizes the non-affiliated voters, and unified with the joint government, so if judged to have expansion potential, party members' support could concentrate on him," while criticizing, "Kim's aggressive 'Yoon-sim marketing' has reduced the ruling party leader to a position that merely supports the president's governance, which has instead provoked backlash from conservative supporters."