Major North Korean Political Schedule Concentrated in February
Concerns Over 7th Nuclear Test
[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korea is expected to form a full-scale military confrontation structure as soon as the Lunar New Year holiday ends. In February, with North Korea's political schedule also concentrated, concerns about a nuclear test are even emerging.
North Korea is currently gathering up to 13,500 troops at Mirim Airfield on the outskirts of Pyongyang and preparing for a military parade. Satellite imagery provider Planet Labs revealed that satellite photos taken on the 2nd of this month showed about 40 rectangular dot-shaped troop formations along the road crossing the center of the airfield.
North Korea experts evaluate North Korea's military parade as "aimed at showcasing the defense sector, which is touted as the only achievement, and strengthening internal cohesion."
The parade is predicted to be held in February. Key dates include February 6 (60th anniversary of the slogan "One Man Against a Hundred"), February 8 (75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army), and February 16 (Kim Jong-il's birthday). North Korea places great importance on jubilee anniversaries (milestone anniversaries in 5 or 10-year increments) and has mainly conducted provocative events to demonstrate military power on these occasions.
Last April, North Korea held a parade marking the 90th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Revolutionary Army, unveiling a large number of new weapons including the hypersonic missile ‘Hwasong-8’, a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) presumed to use solid fuel, and new tactical guided weapons. In January 2021, during the parade commemorating the 8th Congress of the Workers' Party, North Korea revealed the ‘Pukguksong-5’ presumed to be a new SLBM and the KN-23, an improved version of the so-called ‘North Korean Iskander’.
February Next Month Packed with North Korean Political Events, Possibility of ‘Strengthening Cohesion’ Through Military Parade
Attention is focused on whether the new intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) ‘Hwasong-17’ will be showcased at this parade. Looking at North Korea's past missile development cases, once a test launch succeeded even once, the missile was immediately deployed in the field. However, it is difficult to predict how much longer it will take to test-launch an ICBM-class missile equipped with a solid engine, as the timing may be determined by political calculations.
Based on the thrust of the engine announced by North Korea and photos, the engine size is observed to be that of the first stage rocket of an ICBM or long-range SLBM. Also, according to the announced thrust, it is larger than the US Minuteman III and China's DF-31.
Some predict a 7th nuclear test as well. North Korea conducted its 3rd nuclear test on February 12, 2013, ahead of Kim Jong-il's birthday (February 16), known as the Day of the Shining Star. Given that the Kim Jong-un regime has solidified over more than 10 years, attention is focused on a possible nuclear test early this year.
Especially since China's largest annual political event, the Two Sessions (National People's Political Consultative Conference and National People's Congress), will be held in March, there is more weight on the possibility of provocations in February to avoid China's scrutiny.
In this regard, the National Intelligence Service reported to the National Assembly Intelligence Committee on the 5th that "there is a high possibility that a military parade will be held on February 8, the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army." Regarding the possibility of the 7th nuclear test, it stated that "it is always a possibility."
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