Trying to Catch Yoo Seung-min but Caught by Na Kyung-won... Ruling Party's 'Jeondaerul' Dilemma

'Yunsim' Candidate Kim Gi-hyeon Leads Party Loyalty Survey
Na Kyung-won Controversy Over Resignation of Senior Officials Drops to 1st Place
Over 800,000 Responsible Party Members' Votes Remain Uncertain

[Asia Economy Reporters Hyunju Lee and Boryeong Geum] The race for the People Power Party (PPP) leadership election at the March 8 party convention is shaking up from the start. Internal strife is spreading over the candidacy of former lawmaker Na Kyung-won, who was dismissed from her position as vice-chair of the Low Birthrate and Aging Society Committee, plunging the votes of over 800,000 responsible party members into uncertainty. Changes to the party convention rules, which favor 'Pro-Yoon (Pro-Yoon Seok-yeol) faction' candidates, are expected to influence the election dynamics.

According to the PPP on the 18th, the Central Party Election Commission decided at its 4th meeting the previous day to accept candidate registrations for the party convention over two days, March 2-3. If no candidate receives more than 50% of the vote on the convention day, March 8, a 'two-person debate' will be held the next day between the top two candidates by vote count, followed by mobile and ARS voting from March 10-11, with the final winner decided on March 12.

Previously, the PPP changed the party convention rules starting with this election, shifting from the previous system where the party leader was elected by 70% party member votes and 30% general public opinion polls, to a system where the leader is chosen solely by 100% party member votes, and introduced a runoff vote. This was interpreted as a procedure to check former lawmaker Yoo Seung-min, who has led in various opinion polls. Yoo, a PPP member and presidential hopeful, has high name recognition. Although Assemblyman Ahn Cheol-soo, who also ran for president, has high recognition, his party base is considered weak since the merger last year.

Former lawmaker Na Kyung-won has consecutively ranked first in polls targeting PPP supporters since the rule change. Na ranked first in party member votes in the 2021 party convention but lost to former leader Lee Jun-seok due to lower general public poll results. This is why Na weighed a leadership challenge despite sharp confrontations with the presidential office and the party’s Pro-Yoon faction.

The Pro-Yoon faction pushed for the rule change because, given the conservative party’s nature, party members have fully supported the party leadership. It is expected that party members will overwhelmingly support a candidate who backs President Yoon Seok-yeol’s administration in its second year.

In fact, Assemblyman Kim Ki-hyun, who has declared himself a 'Yoon-sim (Yoon Seok-yeol’s intention)' candidate, had been trailing Na and Ahn in various party supporter polls, ranking third. However, after Assemblyman Kwon Seong-dong, known as a 'Yoon core figure,' announced he would not run, Kim’s support surged. In a poll released by news agency Newsis on the same day, among 397 ruling party supporters asked about the 'suitability for PPP party leader,' Kim received 35.5%. He was followed by Na Kyung-won at 21.6%, Ahn Cheol-soo at 19.9%, Yoo Seung-min at 7.4%, former leader Hwang Kyo-ahn at 3.7%, Assemblyman Cho Kyung-tae at 2.5%, and Assemblyman Yoon Sang-hyun at 1.5%.

However, the runoff vote is a variable. In a poll conducted by Every C&R (commissioned by PoliNews, January 14-15), where Kim ranked first initially, in a hypothetical one-on-one runoff, Kim led Na with 46.5% to 39%. But against Ahn, Kim trailed with 42.8% to Ahn’s 48.4%.

Moreover, the influx of young party members in their 20s and 30s joining as responsible party members during former leader Lee Jun-seok’s tenure makes the party sentiment unpredictable, according to insiders and outsiders. As of June last year, the PPP had 140,000 responsible party members in their 20s and 30s, exceeding the 120,000 in their 40s. A PPP official said, "Party members angry about the rule change favoring the Pro-Yoon faction may rally behind non-Yoon candidates."