"Survival Probability Near Zero in Korean Peninsula War... Escape from Seoul Impossible"

English FT Seoul Bureau Chief's Column Claims
"North-South Firepower Is Large and Distance Is Too Close"

A claim has emerged that the survival chances of Seoul citizens would be extremely slim if a war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula. This is because the proximity to North Korea makes it highly likely that high-powered weapons such as rockets and missiles would be concentrated in the early stages of the conflict.

This claim was made in a column titled "Lessons from Preparing for War on the Korean Peninsula," written by Christian Davies, the Seoul bureau chief of the British financial media outlet Financial Times (FT), on the 16th (local time). Davies stated, "I realized that my actual chance of survival (if a war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula) is just slightly above zero."

Davies said, "Recently, while having lunch with Western diplomats, I tried to appear as indifferent as possible and asked what preparations had been made to evacuate their nationals in the event of a conflict on the Korean Peninsula." He added, "Then the diplomat replied, 'There is no need to worry.'"

Training scenes of the North Korean People's Army Photo by Yonhap News

According to Davies, the diplomat said, "Each side's (South Korea and North Korea) firepower is very large, and compared to that, the distance between them is too narrow," adding, "It will all be over before you even realize that (the war) has started." This is interpreted to mean that in the early stages of the war, long-range weapons such as multiple rocket launchers, artillery, rockets, and missiles will be heavily concentrated on both sides, causing devastating damage.

Davies pointed out that in the recent situation where North Korea's nuclear weapons development and provocations are becoming increasingly advanced and acute, "Experts are concerned that North Korea's nuclear weapons have a lower threshold for use compared to high-yield weapons."

He also noted, "Foreign employees working in Seoul are often advised by their home companies to prepare backpacks filled with various items such as water, non-perishable food, cash, torches, satellite phones, and counters that help survive underground for up to 30 days." However, he criticized, "Despite this, the majority of people, whether foreigners or Koreans, have never packed such a bag even once."