"Kim Yo-jong's Possibility as Successor Following Kim Jong-un's Sudden Death"

US Think Tank Seminar on North Korea Successor Outlook
"No Regime Collapse Expected for Kim Jong-un Regardless of Events"

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Joo-hee] An analysis has emerged that if Kim Jong-un, the General Secretary of the Workers' Party of North Korea, suddenly dies, his younger sister Kim Yo-jong, the Vice Director of the Workers' Party, is highly likely to become his successor at this point in time.

On the 5th (local time), at an online seminar on North Korean leadership hosted by the U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), Sumi Terry, Director of Asia at the Wilson Center, stated, "Even if something happens to General Secretary Kim, it is not expected that there will be chaos or regime collapse," and predicted, "In that case, power is likely to be transferred to Vice Director Kim."

Director Terry described Vice Director Kim as "the second-in-command who has exercised real power since at least 2014," and added, "Logically, if something happens to General Secretary Kim, she is the most likely successor."

Kim Yo-jong, Deputy Director of the Workers' Party. / Photo by Chosun Central News Agency

He said, "For General Secretary Kim's eldest child to become an adult, it would have to be around 2030," and speculated, "If General Secretary Kim dies in a few years, one of his three children could also become the successor." Although not precisely known, it is understood that General Secretary Kim has three children with his wife Ri Sol-ju. The eldest is a son, the second is the eldest daughter Kim Ju-ae, who was recently seen accompanying General Secretary Kim and revealed to the media, and the gender of the third child is unclear. They were born in 2010, 2013, and 2017, respectively.

Director Terry further predicted, "If the North Korean regime becomes unstable, it is most likely triggered not by a coup or popular uprising but by a failure in the succession of power."

Bruce Klingner, Senior Researcher at the Heritage Foundation, commented on Kim Ju-ae, saying, "To reach out and press the nuclear button, she would probably need a phone book to stand on," and added, "In that sense, she is not currently the first in line for succession."

He went on to say that even if General Secretary Kim suddenly dies, "an orderly succession will take place," explaining, "Because there are no opposition factions or opposition leaders in North Korea." He then predicted, "Vice Director Kim could be the first in line here, and even if General Secretary Kim dies, there will be no signal of policy change."