[Asia Economy Reporter Bu Aeri] There is speculation that a ceasefire in Russia's invasion war of Ukraine could be achieved within this year, potentially halting the fighting for a while.
According to Germany's dpa news agency on the 2nd, retired General Hans-Lothar Domr?se (72) expressed to Germany's Funke Media the possibility of a ceasefire occurring in the summer. He conveyed the opinion that by summer, "both Russia and Ukraine will say 'there is no progress'."
He identified the period between February and May as a time when a stalemate, making it difficult to determine victory or defeat, is highly likely to occur, stating, "That will be the moment when ceasefire negotiations take place."
General Domr?se added, "Even if a ceasefire is achieved, it does not mean peace will come," explaining, "A ceasefire means stopping the shooting. (Peace) negotiations take a long time. A mediator is needed."
He named potential mediators who might take charge of the negotiations, including UN Secretary-General Ant?nio Guterres, President Recep Tayyip Erdo?an, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
General Domr?se said, "Russian President Vladimir Putin will want to have all of Ukraine, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will want to liberate all of Ukraine again, but the realistically possible choice now is to negotiate a solution that both Russia and Ukraine can accept."
During his active service, General Domr?se was deployed to Afghanistan in 2008, serving as the chief of staff at the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) headquarters in Kabul, playing a key role in the multinational forces. After that, he worked as a senior commander at various NATO headquarters across Europe.
Ratz Andr?si of the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), an expert on Russian affairs and security issues, also expressed the opinion that negotiations between Ukraine and Russia could take place this summer. He said, "There is a high probability of some kind of ceasefire by the end of the year or before. It would be good if they do not fight anymore after that, but at least they will fight much less."
David McAllister, chairman of the European Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, also stated that the Kremlin will not be able to force Ukraine into a strengthened treaty, nor should it. He said, "Whether the conditions for ceasefire negotiations are in place, and when that time will be, is a matter only the Ukrainian government can decide."
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