Mass Production of Missiles or Nuclear Tests for Tactical Nukes
First Milestone on Feb 8, Kim Jong Il's Birthday
Feb 8 Marks 75th Anniversary of the Korean People's Army Founding
[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un defined the South as a 'clear enemy' from the first day of the new year and firmly established 'strengthening nuclear weapon capabilities' as the core of this year's defense strategy. Experts have observed that North Korea could proceed with nuclear weapon capability enhancement through two scenarios: focusing on mass production of nuclear warheads and missiles, or conducting nuclear tests to upgrade existing warheads.
According to intelligence authorities on the 2nd, the Korean Central News Agency reported the previous day that Chairman Kim Jong-un declared a 'transformative strategy for nuclear and defense development in 2023' during the 6th plenary meeting of the 8th Central Committee of the Workers' Party held from the 26th to the 31st of last month. Kim demanded the North Korean military to mass-produce tactical nuclear weapons and exponentially increase the number of nuclear warheads, while repeatedly expressing the willingness to use nuclear weapons as a preemptive strike means.
South Korean and U.S. intelligence agencies assess that North Korea already possesses a large number of tactical nuclear weapons, having conducted up to the 6th nuclear test. The standard for miniaturizing nuclear warheads is evaluated as a diameter of 90cm and warhead weight within 1 ton, and North Korea is believed to have technology exceeding this level. The ‘North Korean version of Iskander (KN-23)’, ‘North Korean version of ATACMS (KN-24)’, and the super-large multiple rocket launcher (KN-25), which North Korea has intensively launched since May 2019, can be equipped with tactical nuclear warheads. These missiles reach the skies over Seoul within one minute after launch.
North Korea is expected to raise tensions by simultaneously firing dozens of super-large multiple rocket launchers mixed with KN-23 and KN-24 missiles, and reveal tactical nuclear warheads at politically significant events. The likely timing for the tactical nuclear reveal is around the February 8th parade commemorating the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army. Tactical nuclear weapons might be tested thereafter.
Shin Jong-woo, Secretary General of the Korea Defense Forum, predicted, “After continuing test launches for missile mass production until early this year, North Korea may internally reveal nuclear warheads to prove tactical nuclear miniaturization during political events.”
Some analysts believe that since North Korea’s ‘tactical nuclear operation units’ missiles have been continuously upgraded since 2017, a 7th nuclear test could be conducted to upgrade nuclear warheads. This would be an act to demonstrate miniaturization and technical reliability of the warheads.
Jung Sung-jang, Director of the North Korea Research Center at the Sejong Institute, stated, "North Korea is expected to conduct the 7th nuclear test as early as January 8th, before Kim Jong-un’s birthday, or at the latest by February 8th, the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Korean People's Army, or February 16th, the birthday of Kim Jong-il."
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