[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Can North Korea Use Nuclear Weapons?

North Korea Adopts Nuclear Force Policy Decree in September This Year... Legalizing Nuclear Use

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] As North Korea accelerates its efforts to strengthen its nuclear forces toward the end of the year, attention is focusing on whether it possesses nuclear weapons and the possibility of their use.

North Korea legislated nuclear forces law in September, explicitly stating the possibility of a preemptive nuclear strike. A month later, in October, it revealed training of tactical nuclear operation units. In November, it claimed success in launching the Hwasong-17 intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), followed by tests of solid-fuel engines to enhance ICBM performance and final tests of reconnaissance satellites.

This year, North Korea has flaunted its military provocations, including ICBM test launches, reinforcing its anti-American resolve. On the 21st, the Workers' Party organ Rodong Sinmun published an article titled "The Great Kim Jong-un Korea Will Continue to March Forward Unstoppably," stating, "Our country, which declared the legalization of the national nuclear force policy, has demonstrated the execution power of the nuclear force policy through realistic military training," and praised itself by saying, "No country has ever declared and proven an ultra-hardline retaliatory will right in front of the United States."

At the Supreme People's Assembly held in September, Chairman Kim Jong-un adopted the nuclear force policy law. Article 6 of the law specifies the conditions under which North Korea may use nuclear weapons. It states that North Korea can use nuclear weapons in cases such as an attack or imminent attack with nuclear weapons or weapons of mass destruction (WMD) against North Korea, or operational necessities like seizing the initiative in war.

North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons Estimated at Around 90 Now... Expected to Increase by Up to 200 by 2030
Five Possible Nuclear Strategies Including Threats if South Korea-US Respond to NLL Infringement

▲How many nuclear weapons does North Korea have?= Experts estimate that North Korea actually possesses nuclear weapons. It is currently estimated to have about 90 nuclear weapons, and projections suggest this number could increase to over 160 by 2030.

According to data presented by Lee Sang-gyu, an active researcher at the Korea Institute for Defense Analyses (KIDA), at the ‘2022 Second Half North Korean Military Forum’ on the 16th, North Korea is estimated to have produced about 2,044 kg of highly enriched uranium and about 68?72 kg of plutonium. It is expected to produce approximately 3,408 kg of uranium and about 107?123 kg of plutonium by 2030. The current estimated nuclear weapon stockpile is about 88?89 warheads, which could increase to approximately 162?166 by 2030.

The Asan Institute for Policy Studies, together with the U.S. RAND Corporation, released a report last year titled ‘Countering the Risks of North Korean Nuclear Weapons,’ estimating that as of the end of 2019, North Korea had secured a total plutonium amount of 30?63 kg and enriched uranium ranging from a minimum of 175 kg to a maximum of 645 kg. Based on this, it projected that by 2027, North Korea could secure 151?242 nuclear weapons using plutonium and enriched uranium.

▲What is North Korea’s nuclear weapons strategy?= The North Korean regime appears to use nuclear weapons as a means to achieve both domestic and foreign policy and military objectives simultaneously. Simply possessing nuclear weapons legitimizes Kim Jong-un’s regime and helps maintain its rule.

The ‘Countering the Risks of North Korean Nuclear Weapons’ report also outlines five nuclear tactical scenarios in which North Korea could use nuclear weapons. Specific scenarios include nuclear use for intimidation, coercion, and deterrence; limited nuclear use; major warfare with nuclear weapons; undermining the U.S. extended deterrence commitment; and nuclear proliferation.

The use of nuclear weapons for intimidation, coercion, and deterrence involves threatening to use nuclear weapons if South Korea and the U.S. respond after North Korea crosses the Northern Limit Line (NLL) and occupies the five islands in the West Sea. Limited nuclear use is expected to involve taking Seoul and other major South Korean cities as ‘nuclear hostages’ and attempting to break South Korea-U.S. resolve through nuclear attacks on these cities. If South Korea and the U.S. retaliate, North Korea might threaten attacks on U.S. military bases in the Asia-Pacific region, Japan, or even the U.S. mainland.

The major warfare scenario involves North Korea potentially using 40?60 nuclear weapons early in a war to strike South Korea’s political and military key targets. If South Korea and the U.S. attempt counterattacks, North Korea could escalate by using a large number of nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula, pushing the Asia-Pacific region into full-scale nuclear war. The report also warns that once North Korea possesses over 100 nuclear warheads, it might consider selling them overseas, highlighting the risk of ‘nuclear proliferation.’