"Organizing Conservative Groups to Prepare for Party Formation"
Breaking Away from Unofficial Power, Increasing Public Statements
"Likely to Support Putin's Election Rather Than Building Independent Forces"
In 2011, Yevgeny Prigozhin (left) is seen personally serving food to Russian President Vladimir Putin (right) at his restaurant. [Image source=Yonhap News]
[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Yevgeny Prigozhin, known as a close aide to Russian President Vladimir Putin and the head of the mercenary group Wagner, is reportedly preparing to enter politics, drawing attention to the background of this move. Some speculate that he might even run in the 2024 Russian presidential election.
However, it is expected that rather than breaking away from Putin and building an independent power base, he will engage in political activities to consolidate the Putin regime. As a mysterious figure whose exact background is difficult to ascertain and who is a behind-the-scenes power in the Putin administration, analysts believe there will be limitations to his transformation into a public politician.
"Prigozhin Expands Patriotic Conservatism Movement... Preparing to Form a Political Party"
Yevgeny Prigozhin attending the funeral ceremony for Russian soldiers killed in the Ukraine war held in Moscow last November. [Image source=Kommersant]
On the 7th (local time), Russian independent media Meduza cited a senior source within the Russian government, reporting, "Prigozhin is creating a patriotic conservative organization by criticizing elite bureaucrats in Russian politics, and this organization is expected to transition into a political party in the future." The report added, "Senior officials within the Russian government are concerned about his growing influence, and if he runs for election, such as the presidential race, without prior consultation with the government, the Kremlin may restrict his political activities."
Prigozhin, who has been known as "Putin's chef" and led the Wagner Group, a mercenary force considered a personal guard unit of President Putin, is preparing for full-fledged political activities, causing a significant stir in Russian political circles. Particularly, as Prigozhin increasingly makes political statements directly criticizing not only the Russian military but also high-ranking bureaucratic elites, criticism is mounting that he is spreading distrust toward the Russian government.
However, the dominant analysis is that it is unlikely that he, as a close aide to President Putin, will build an independent force opposing the Putin regime. Rather, in a situation where Putin has lost popularity due to successive defeats in the Ukraine war and must prepare for the 2024 presidential election, Prigozhin is expected to become a political vanguard to unite hardliners and pro-Putin forces to politically support Putin.
Professor Gulnaz Sharafutdinova, head of the Russia Research Institute at King's College London, a UK think tank, said in an interview with Al Jazeera, "The signs of Prigozhin preparing to run for president indicate that the Putin regime is trying to threaten the currently shaken Russian elite bureaucrats by showing the possibility of hardline rule." She analyzed, "It is a strategy to further consolidate power by showing the Russian elites that there is no alternative to Putin."
The Mysterious Behind-the-Scenes Power Who Became a Tycoon Selling Hot Dogs
The United States Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) issued a war crimes warrant for Yevgeny Prigozhin in March following the outbreak of the war in Ukraine and placed a reward of $250,000 on him. Washington DC= Reuters·Yonhap News
The reason why analysts believe it will be difficult for Prigozhin to become an independent force is that he has been a behind-the-scenes power in the Putin regime whose exact background has not been revealed. Although he has recently increased his political statements and activities, clear information about Prigozhin personally remains unknown both inside and outside Russia.
According to the British BBC, Prigozhin, born in 1961, was a cross-country athlete in his teens but was imprisoned at age 18 on various criminal charges and was released after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1990. Afterward, he started a hot dog business and made a huge fortune. In 1996, he founded Concord Catering, a large restaurant and Russia's largest catering company. He was later appointed as the personal chef to then-presidential candidate Putin, becoming one of his closest aides.
In 2014, during Russia's forced annexation of Ukraine's Crimean Peninsula, he established the Wagner Group, a mercenary unit developed as the vanguard of the Russian military. He had concealed the fact that he was the founder of the Wagner Group until recently, but suddenly revealed it in September, causing a sensation. His rapid rise to a behind-the-scenes power within less than a decade after his release continues to be a subject of controversy inside and outside Russia.
Last month, he even admitted to interfering in the U.S. presidential election, sparking international controversy. Through his social media, Prigozhin stated, "We have interfered in the U.S. elections, have been interfering, and will continue to interfere," adding, "We will do so carefully and precisely, like surgery, in our own way."
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