Draft of Operation Plan 2022 Taking Shape... Initial Draft to Be Prepared Early Next Year After Verification Through Wargame
[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] The South Korean and U.S. military authorities have outlined the ‘Operation Plan (OPLAN) 2022’ to counter North Korea’s nuclear and missile threats. They plan to conduct a computer simulation ‘wargame’ within this month to verify the plan.
According to the military authorities of both countries on the 19th, the currently prepared OPLAN 2022 is expected to include threats from North Korea’s small tactical nuclear weapons and Joint Defense Point of Interception (JDPI), among other updates.
Tactical nuclear weapons have a smaller explosive yield compared to strategic nuclear weapons. Concerns over tactical nukes are expected to grow if North Korea proceeds with its 7th nuclear test. It is observed that North Korea is developing short-range weapons as delivery means for ‘tactical nukes’ targeting not only South Korea but also U.S. military bases in Japan adjacent to the East Sea.
The ROK-U.S. alliance will also update the JDPI in OPLAN 2022 to respond accordingly. In 2016, the two countries selected about 700 JDPI sites, including ‘biological weapon origin points.’ However, as North Korea diversified its launch methods, such as the railway-mobile missile unit firing ballistic missiles from trains in September last year, the need to reflect these changes has increased. Nevertheless, since North Korea’s railway network exceeds 5,000 km but mostly consists of single tracks with aging infrastructure, only specific areas will be included as interception points.
The OPLAN is an operation plan established by the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, starting with numbers in the 5000 series. The ROK-U.S. alliance created OPLAN 5015 in 2015 by integrating ‘OPLAN 5029’ for sudden North Korean contingencies, ‘OPLAN 5027’ for full-scale war, and peacetime plans for local provocations.
So far, the ROK-U.S. alliance has applied OPLAN 5015 in joint exercises. Known as the ‘Kim Jong-un decapitation operation,’ it is the latest operational plan involving preemptive strikes and unit deployments to eliminate the North Korean leadership in the event of full-scale war, classified as a Level 2 secret within the ROK-U.S. combined forces.
However, OPLAN 5015 does not include North Korea’s nuclear missile advancements, South Korean military restructuring, or changes in the combined command structure. This is why the ROK-U.S. agreed to supplement the plan during the 53rd Security Consultative Meeting (SCM) held in Seoul last December and approved a new ‘Strategic Planning Guidance’ (SPG) for this purpose. Subsequently, the ROK-U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff signed the ‘Strategic Planning Directive’ (SPD), which develops the SPG further. While the SPG provides a broad framework outlining the response direction and objectives of the ROK-U.S. militaries in a Korean Peninsula contingency, the SPD serves as a detailed guideline to implement it.
To establish the OPLAN, the ROK-U.S. must go through a total of seven stages. After analyzing the missions of each unit and establishing countermeasures, the third stage is completed. The ROK-U.S. plan to operate the initial phase of the OPLAN through wargames by the end of this month to make improvements. Once this phase is completed and final approval is obtained, the draft of OPLAN 2022 is expected to be completed by April next year.
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