October European temperatures 2 degrees above average
Gas demand drops over 20%... Supply crisis easing↓
[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), a climate research institute under the European Union (EU), has forecasted that this winter's temperatures in the European region will be warmer than average, indicating a mild climate. They also predicted that the energy crisis situation will be less severe than previously expected.
According to Bloomberg on the 13th (local time), C3S stated in a report that "winter temperatures across Europe, including the Baltic Sea, Mediterranean, and North Sea coastal areas, are certain to exceed historical averages," adding that "the probability of temperatures being significantly higher than historical norms exceeds 50-60%." Furthermore, they forecasted that "precipitation in Western Europe, including France and Germany, will be very low over the next three months, which may affect snowfall during the ski season."
The average temperature in Europe last month, as compiled by C3S, was more than 2 degrees Celsius higher than the average for the same period from 1991 to 2020. If the warm trend continues through winter, there is hope that demand for heating gas will be suppressed. C3S explained, "While the likelihood of severe cold waves is low, due to extreme weather anomalies, preparations should be made for occasional severe cold spells."
Gas demand in Europe is already decreasing amid the warm weather. According to EnergyScan, a European energy market analysis firm, total gas demand in Western Europe in October fell by 22% compared to the same month last year. Demand decreased by 33% in households and small to medium-sized enterprises, and by 27% in large corporations.
Currently, the average gas storage rate among EU countries stands at 95%, and Germany, the largest energy consumer in Europe, has reached 98%. With gas demand decreasing, it is expected that there will be no energy crisis this winter. The U.S. think tank Eurasia Group told Bloomberg, "Most weather forecast models predict relatively mild conditions during the winter of 2022. Even if cold weather occurs in early 2023, there is sufficient gas to meet demand."
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