[G20 Summit] Putin Ultimately Absent... The Solution to the Ukraine War Depends on This Country

Putin's Participation in G20 Video Conference Uncertain
Zelensky, Ukrainian President, Attends via Video
Absent from APEC and ASEAN Meetings...Focus on China's Moves

[Image source=EPA Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] Russian President Vladimir Putin has announced that he will not attend the Group of Twenty (G20) summit, bringing the issue of the Ukraine war to the forefront of the G20 meeting. Although the much-anticipated meeting between President Joe Biden and Western leaders with President Putin will not take place, the international solidarity on sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine is expected to strengthen further with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s participation via video conference.

According to CNN on the 13th (local time), on the 10th, the Russian Embassy in Indonesia, the host country of the G20 summit, informed the Indonesian government that President Putin would not attend the meeting and that Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov would attend in his place. Yulia Tomskaya, Protocol Director at the Russian Embassy, told CNN in an interview, “President Putin is currently reviewing whether to participate via video conference instead of attending in person.”

On the other hand, with President Putin’s decision not to attend, President Zelensky’s participation via video conference has been confirmed. Earlier, the Ukrainian presidential office stated on the 8th that “President Zelensky will participate in the G20 summit in some form, most likely via video conference.” President Zelensky had previously warned that he would not attend the G20 summit if President Putin were present.

Accordingly, the resolution of the Ukraine war is expected to be a major agenda item at this G20 summit. Earlier, President Biden drew a clear line regarding Putin’s attendance at the G20, saying, “Even if I meet President Putin in Bali, we will not discuss the Ukraine war, and the talks will be limited to issues such as exchanging American prisoners detained in Russia, including U.S. women’s basketball star Brittney Griner.”

Analysts both inside and outside Russia have pointed out that informal contacts and negotiations with Western leaders have become difficult. Andrey Kortunov, Secretary General of the Russian think tank Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC), told Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post (SCMP), “Putin and Biden aim to meet, but it appears that preparations for the talks are not yet sufficient,” adding, “Within the Russian government, there were expectations that the G20 summit would serve as an opportunity for contact and negotiations with the West, but it has become clear that the chance for a meeting is gone.”

President Putin has announced that he will not attend not only the G20 summit but also the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit held around the same time.

Some speculate that Putin’s decision not to attend was made because his presence might provoke Western leaders and strengthen anti-Russian solidarity, causing adverse effects. According to The Washington Post (WP), President Putin attended the G20 summit held in Australia shortly after the forced annexation of Crimea in 2014 but faced harsh criticism from Western leaders and returned home earlier than planned.

With President Putin’s absence, attention is also focused on possible shifts in the positions of China and India, who will attend this G20 summit. In particular, China has recently emphasized the need to prevent the escalation of the war amid concerns about Russia’s potential use of tactical nuclear weapons. According to The New York Times (NYT), Chinese President Xi Jinping stressed during a meeting with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on the 4th that “nuclear weapons must not be used, and nuclear war must be avoided,” and emphasized the need to “prevent a nuclear crisis from emerging on the Eurasian continent.”