North Korea Launches Ballistic Missiles Southward for the First Time in History... "At Least 10 Today" (Comprehensive)

NLL South Open Sea 26km Near Territorial Waters
At Least 10 Missiles Fired East and West Today
Yoon "Strict Response to Make Provocation Pay"

Impact point of the short-range ballistic missile (SRBM) launched southward by North Korea

[Asia Economy Reporter Jang Hee-jun] North Korea has once again escalated its level of provocation by launching ballistic missiles southward for the first time in history. While it has previously fired coastal artillery and multiple rocket launchers south of the Northern Limit Line (NLL), this is the first ballistic missile launch since the division of the Korean Peninsula.

It is interpreted that North Korea used the ongoing South Korea-U.S. joint air exercise 'Vigilant Storm,' which started on the 31st of last month, as a pretext for this military provocation. Given the continued possibility of a seventh nuclear test, it is expected that the level of offensive actions will further intensify.

The Joint Chiefs of Staff announced on the 2nd at around 8:51 a.m. that North Korea launched three short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) from the Wonsan area in Gangwon Province toward the East Sea. Among these, one missile landed in international waters south of the East Sea NLL. The specific impact points were confirmed to be 26 km south of the NLL in international waters, 57 km east of Sokcho, and 167 km northwest of Ulleungdo. The other two missiles are still being verified but are currently estimated to have been launched in directions other than south.

Although the missiles landed in international waters, considering that territorial waters extend 12 nautical miles (approximately 22 km) from the baseline, they landed quite close to South Korea’s territorial waters. Because the missile direction was southward for the first time, especially toward Ulleungdo, an air raid warning was automatically issued throughout Ulleung County by the Central Civil Defense Warning Control Center, which is linked with the Air Force’s Missile Command and Control Center (MCRC) and ballistic missile warning radars.

The military is currently detecting additional developments and has raised its alert and fire readiness posture in response. It is understood that North Korea launched at least 10 various missiles eastward and westward on the same day.

In its statement released on the same day, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said, "This North Korean missile launch is the first time since the division that a missile landed close to our territorial waters south of the NLL," adding, "It is highly unusual and absolutely unacceptable." President Yoon Suk-yeol convened an emergency National Security Council (NSC) meeting and took action in response. President Yoon defined North Korea’s missile launch as a "substantial territorial infringement" and ordered a strict response to ensure North Korea pays the price for its provocation.

On the morning of the 2nd, citizens at Seoul Station are watching news related to North Korea's ballistic missile launch. [Image source=Yonhap News]

Military authorities are placing significant weight on the possibility that North Korea’s recent military provocation is a backlash against the South Korea-U.S. joint air exercise Vigilant Storm, which is scheduled to run from the 31st of last month to the 4th of this month. It is particularly interpreted as an expression of dissatisfaction with the successive deployment of U.S. strategic assets such as the F-35B and nuclear submarines to the Korean Peninsula.

Prior to the provocation, Pak Jong-chon, Vice Chairman of the Workers’ Party Central Military Commission and considered the top-ranking military official in North Korea, warned that if South Korea and the U.S. use military force against North Korea, they would "pay a terrible price." Following a statement by the Foreign Ministry spokesperson the previous day threatening to "consider strengthened next measures," the tone and attribution of the statements have gradually intensified.

Above all, since Pak Jong-chon is regarded as the top military official, this statement is also interpreted as a warning directly from Kim Jong-un, General Secretary of the Workers’ Party.

North Korea refrained from launching ballistic missiles around the period of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party from the 16th to the 22nd, following the early morning launch of what is presumed to be the North Korean version of the Iskander (KN-23) ballistic missile on the 14th of last month. Then, on the 28th of last month, it launched two short-range ballistic missiles during the day and resumed ballistic missile launches again after five days.

North Korea’s repeated verbal threats referring to "next measures" or "special means of force" are interpreted as hints toward its nuclear capabilities. However, it is believed that North Korea is reserving a seventh nuclear test as its final card and is likely to precede it with an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) test launch. Analysts suggest that North Korea will observe the U.S. reaction to the ICBM launch before deciding on the timing and execution of the nuclear test.

Although North Korea followed its usual pattern of issuing condemnations or statements before carrying out provocations, some in the political sphere consider the missile launch during the national mourning period to be unexpected.

Jung Jin-seok, Emergency Response Committee Chairman of the People Power Party, told reporters immediately after the committee meeting on the same day, "Despite knowing that the entire nation is in mourning, they carried out provocations without any regard," raising his voice to call them an "incorrigible group." He added, "We must clearly identify where North Korea’s ballistic missile provocation is aimed," and expressed suspicion, saying, "I have serious doubts whether the provocation is taking place in a different pattern than before."