"Possibility of 7th Major Wave Starting in November, Focus on BQ.1 Variant... Need to Prepare for Twin-demic in Infants and Toddlers"

Proposal by Shin Sang-yeop, Chief Senior Research Fellow at KMI

[Asia Economy Reporter Lee Gwan-joo] As the possibility of the '7th major wave' of COVID-19 is anticipated as early as next month, there is a forecast that preparations should be made for the new variant 'BQ.1 (BQ.1.1)', which is currently spreading worldwide, as well as for a 'multidemic' (simultaneous outbreaks of infectious diseases) among infants and young children, including influenza.

Shin Sang-yeop, Senior Research Fellow at KMI Korea Medical Institute (Infectious Disease Specialist), stated on the 24th, "In a situation where the next large-scale outbreak caused by the BQ.1 variant is predicted, active monitoring and response, as well as the establishment of a medical system for infants and young children simultaneously exposed to risks other than COVID-19, are necessary."

Shin explained that domestic COVID-19 outbreaks tend to peak every five months but predicted that the timing of the next wave might be accelerated. He said, "Typically, the infection prevention effect from natural immunity is stably maintained for about three months, after which a new variant that evades existing immunity emerges and spreads, initiating a major wave. The peak of the wave occurs during the process of the dominant strain being replaced. Currently, the low point of the outbreak remains high, so assuming a five-month cycle for peaks, the next wave might start from November instead of the previously predicted period between December and February."

The upcoming COVID-19 wave is expected to be driven by the BQ.1 variant. In the past one to two weeks, the share of the BQ.1 variant has surged in most regions including the United States, Europe, and Africa. In the U.S., the BQ.1 variant's share sharply rose to 22% last week, and similarly in Europe, the BQ.1 variant's share surged, with France already surpassing 50% last week, becoming the dominant strain. Spain and Belgium also exceeded a 30% share.

Shin noted, "Based on past patterns, variants that rapidly increased their share in the U.S. and Europe invariably became the dominant strains leading global outbreaks. Therefore, it is highly likely that the next global COVID-19 wave will be driven by the BQ.1 variant, a subvariant of BA.5. It is also necessary to observe the long-term spread of the XBB (XBB.1) variant currently circulating in Asia."

Shin also emphasized the need to strengthen COVID-19 variant monitoring and to quickly introduce bivalent vaccines that include BA.5. Especially as we enter the fall season, thorough preparation is required for the multidemic involving COVID-19, influenza, human metapneumovirus (hMPV), and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) simultaneously spreading. He said, "The multidemic has already begun. In the past two years, there were no outbreaks of viruses other than COVID-19 during winter, so responses focused on high-risk groups for COVID-19 such as the elderly and those with underlying conditions. However, this winter, there is a need to focus more on infants and young children and to reorganize the medical system accordingly."