[Yeouido Interview] Futurist Hong Seong-guk at the National Assembly: "Next Year, I Will Release a Follow-up to 'Contraction Society'"

COVID-19, Unforeseen Intensification of US-China Rivalry
Our Society is Heading Toward a Contraction Society

Hong Seong-guk, Member of the Democratic Party of Korea./Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] Hong Seong-guk, a member of the Democratic Party of Korea who was called the "Futurist of the Securities World," rose to the ranks of bestselling authors in 2018 with his book titled Shrinking Society. In his book, which foresaw the future, Hong admitted that two predictions were wrong: the COVID-19 pandemic and the intensification of the US-China conflict. A follow-up work reflecting the changed social landscape of Shrinking Society is expected to be released around next year.

In a recent interview with Asia Economy, Rep. Hong said, "When I wrote Shrinking Society, I did not predict COVID-19," adding, "Due to COVID-19, various policy measures such as lowering interest rates more than expected and significantly expanding the money supply were implemented, so I did not anticipate that inflation could unfold." Although he foresaw negative growth, he could not have predicted that countries worldwide would adopt extreme measures close to zero interest rates as the pandemic spread globally.

He explained, "Regarding the US-China hegemonic competition, I anticipated it would be comprehensive, but it is occurring much faster and more intensely than expected, triggering inflation as a result." What was expected to be a 'jab punch' exchange in the US-China hegemonic rivalry has escalated into a fierce 'hook punch' form, and as a result, supply chains have been hit, causing prices to rise?something he did not foresee.

However, despite missing the pandemic and the intense US-China hegemonic competition, he explained that the fundamental direction and aspirations for viewing future society remain the same.

Hong Seong-guk, Member of the Democratic Party of Korea./Photo by Yoon Dong-joo doso7@

Through his book, Rep. Hong defined a shrinking society as "a phenomenon where the basic framework of all areas of society?including politics, economy, and environment?changes due to a prolonged low-growth trend, affecting even ways of thinking." He explained, "Throughout human history, it was always assumed that productivity would increase, population would grow, and prices would rise, so growth was taken for granted, but originally, the Middle Ages were a deflationary society," adding, "It changed after the Industrial Revolution." He predicted, "Now, the size of the pie tomorrow will be the same or smaller than today, and to grow my share, I will have to take from others." He forecasted, "The term 'shrinking society' is similar to a zero-sum society, but it goes further to an era where the pie itself shrinks." Having warned about the possibility of our society entering a deflationary phase since 2004 through his book Into Deflation, he explained, "Subsequent books only differ in perspective on deflationary society, but the basic direction has not changed."

He said, "When the population decreases, these phenomena appear. In Korea, domestic demand-related industries will now experience negative growth as total demand shrinks," explaining, "Food and beverage, textiles, and clothing industries are fundamentally declining, and most industries facing economic crises are oversupplied." He also described rice, which recently experienced price fluctuations close to waves, as one of the changes brought by the shrinking society. Rep. Hong said, "I will update the new changes and release the book around next year."