[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Is North Korea Starting Seongdong-style Provocations?

After the CCP Congress, North Korean Fishing Boat Violates NLL... Inter-Korean Warning Shots Fired
North Mentions Loudspeakers, Increasing Possibility of Ground Provocations or Nuclear Tests

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] As the Communist Party National Congress, which decided on Chinese President Xi Jinping's third term, concluded, there are forecasts that North Korea will carry out a sudden and unexpected provocation. There is also a high possibility of provocations considering military clashes between the South and the North.

On the 24th, the Joint Chiefs of Staff stated, "At around 3:42 a.m. on the same day, a North Korean merchant ship (Mupoho) crossed the NLL about 27 km northwest of Baengnyeongdo in the West Sea, and our military issued warning communications and warning shots to drive it away, but the North fired 10 rounds of multiple rocket launcher shells."

North Korea unilaterally declared its maritime military demarcation line south of the West Sea NLL, and it appears they claimed that South Korean vessels entered this area. Of course, the South does not recognize the West Sea maritime demarcation line unilaterally declared by the North and regards the NLL as the de facto maritime boundary.

The military authorities judge that the series of events?from the North Korean merchant ship crossing the NLL, the North Korean multiple rocket launcher firing, to the announcement by the North Korean General Staff?are likely intentional acts following a "well-planned scenario." North Korea's provocations, including ballistic missile launches since the 25th of last month, threatening flights near the Military Demarcation Line (MDL), artillery fire violating the September 19 military agreement, and provocations at the West Sea NLL, may be aimed at accumulating justification for localized provocations.

Jung Sung-jang, director of the North Korea Research Center at the Sejong Institute, said, "With the intensification of the US-China strategic competition, cooperation between the US and China on North Korea issues is unlikely. North Korea, which recently demonstrated tactical nuclear attack capabilities, will perceive the current moment as a golden opportunity to neutralize the NLL by force."

A notable point is that North Korea, on the same day, issued a statement in the name of the General Staff spokesperson, "We sternly warn against loudspeaker provocations on the ground front recently." Loudspeaker broadcasts, which have been suspended since the inter-Korean agreement in August 2015, are mentioned as one of the response cards if North Korea proceeds with its 7th nuclear test.

It is possible that North Korea described the South Korean vessel's warning communications as loudspeaker provocations or claimed that warning broadcasts conducted in response to North Korean troop approaches at the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) Guard Posts (GPs) were loudspeaker provocations. Mentioning loudspeakers, which the South claims were not used on that day, appears to be a stereotypical tactic of nitpicking and shifting blame unjustly.

Provocations could also be used as a pretext during the live joint exercises conducted in the West Sea from the 24th to the 27th as part of the Defense Training, and the Korea-US joint air exercises starting on the 31st of this month. Previously, North Korea fired artillery rounds into the buffer zones of the East and West Seas five times on the 14th and three times on the 18th and 19th, blaming South Korea's multiple launch rocket system (MLRS) fire in the Cheorwon area. However, the MLRS firing drills were routine exercises unrelated to the September 19 agreement, and North Korea nitpicked to justify its own shelling.

The deliberate provocation to raise military tension in the NLL maritime area is interpreted as an attempt to accumulate justification for provocations, signaling a willingness to carry out the 7th nuclear test.

Olli Heinonen, a special researcher at the Stimson Center and former Deputy Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said in an interview with Voice of America (VOA) on the 22nd, "It is highly likely that the Punggye-ri nuclear test site is currently ready for a nuclear test," adding, "North Korea may also consider a third location." Earlier, Patrick Ryder, spokesperson for the US Department of Defense, reaffirmed the imminent possibility of North Korea's 7th nuclear test during a briefing on the 20th (local time), stating, "We assess that North Korea is potentially preparing for a nuclear test."

Some speculate that China might suppress North Korea's nuclear test possibility. Since President Xi Jinping has put forward "Taiwan reunification" as a justification for his long-term rule, it is judged that China would find overlapping regional military crises burdensome. North Korea previously conducted its 6th nuclear test on the day the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China) summit presided over by Xi Jinping opened in September 2017, which faced strong opposition from Chinese authorities. China did not exercise its veto power during the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 2375 on North Korea sanctions on September 11 of the same year, after the 6th nuclear test.

Cha Doo-hyun, senior researcher at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said, "From China's perspective, which needs to focus on Taiwan, it does not want North Korea to cross the line with provocations. If the Cold War structure intensifies and the crisis on the Korean Peninsula escalates, there is a high possibility that South Korea, an indispensable economic partner for China, will be entangled in the Taiwan issue."