Amid ongoing 'territorial disputes' over Hambakdo, an uninhabited island near the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea, North Korean military facilities can be seen on Hambakdo as viewed from Maldo-ri, Seodo-myeon, Ganghwa-gun, Incheon, on the morning of the 24th. The Ministry of National Defense recently confirmed on-site that Hambakdo is located about 700 meters north of the Northern Limit Line (NLL) in the West Sea and is an island under North Korean jurisdiction. Photo by Joint Press Corps
[Asia Economy Military Specialist Reporter Yang Nak-gyu, Reporter Jang Hee-jun] North Korea has provoked again. Immediately after the Communist Party National Congress, which decided on Chinese President Xi Jinping's third term, ended, North Korea is raising tensions with provocations that go beyond military demonstrations to consider military clashes.
On the 24th, the Joint Chiefs of Staff announced, "At around 3:42 a.m. on this day, a North Korean merchant ship (Mupoho) intruded into the NLL about 27 km northwest of Baengnyeongdo in the West Sea, and our military took measures to expel it with warning communications and warning shots."
The North Korean vessel retreated north of the NLL, but at around 5:14 a.m., the North Korean military fired 10 rounds of multiple rocket launchers into the maritime buffer zone north of the West Sea NLL near Jangsan Cape, Hwanghae Province.
Regarding this, North Korea shifted the responsibility to South Korea. The North Korean General Staff issued a statement through a spokesperson, claiming, "A South Korean puppet navy escort ship belonging to the 2nd Fleet intruded 2.5 to 5 km beyond our maritime military demarcation line at about 20 km northwest of Baengnyeongdo under the pretext of unidentified ship control, and a maritime confrontation involving 'warning shots' occurred."
The military defines the North Korean ship's crossing of the NLL not simply as 'crossing' but as 'invasion' and is analyzing its intent. In particular, the General Staff said, "We sternly warn against recent loudspeaker provocations on the ground front," indicating a high possibility of continued provocations on land.
Jung Sung-jang, head of the North Korea Research Center at the Sejong Institute, said, "As US-China strategic competition intensifies, cooperation between the US and China on North Korea issues is unlikely. North Korea, which recently demonstrated tactical nuclear attack capabilities, will perceive the current moment as a golden opportunity to neutralize the NLL."
Deliberately provoking military tensions in the NLL maritime area could be a pretext for high-intensity provocations such as the 7th nuclear test.
Olli Heinonen, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center and former deputy director-general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), said in an interview with Voice of America (VOA) on the 22nd, "It is highly likely that the Punggye-ri nuclear test site is currently ready for a nuclear test," adding, "North Korea may also consider a third site." Earlier, Patrick Ryder, spokesperson for the US Department of Defense, reaffirmed the imminent possibility of North Korea's 7th nuclear test during a briefing on the 20th (local time), stating, "We assess that North Korea is potentially preparing for a nuclear test."
Some speculate that China may suppress the possibility of North Korea's nuclear test. Since President Xi Jinping has presented 'Taiwan unification' as a justification for his long-term rule, it is judged that China would find overlapping regional military crises burdensome. North Korea previously conducted its 6th nuclear test on the day the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China) summit presided over by Xi Jinping opened in September 2017, only to face strong opposition from Chinese authorities. China did not exercise its veto power during the adoption of UN Security Council Resolution 2375 on North Korea sanctions on September 11 of the same year, after North Korea's 6th nuclear test.
Cha Doo-hyun, senior research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies, said, "From China's perspective, which needs to focus on Taiwan, it does not want North Korea to engage in provocations that cross the line," adding, "If the Cold War structure intensifies and the crisis on the Korean Peninsula escalates, there is a high possibility that South Korea, an indispensable economic partner for China, will be entangled in the Taiwan issue."
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