Sunak Favored as Next UK Prime Minister with 96% Betting Odds... Johnson Withdraws from Leadership Race

Rishi Sunak, Former UK Chancellor of the Exchequer [Photo by Reuters]

[Asia Economy Reporter Park Byung-hee] Former UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak appears certain to become the next UK Prime Minister following Liz Truss, who announced her resignation on the 20th (local time). This is because Boris Johnson, the only competitor considered against Sunak for the next Prime Minister, declared at around 9 p.m. on the 23rd that he would not run in the leadership contest.

According to the Financial Times (FT), the probability of Sunak being elected Prime Minister, as calculated by UK betting firm Betfair, surged to 96% immediately after Johnson's withdrawal announcement. Before Johnson's announcement, Sunak's probability was slightly below 80%.

Johnson is believed to have withdrawn because he anticipated difficulty in securing the support of 100 Conservative MPs required to register as a candidate for the next Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister.

To register as a candidate for the next Conservative Party leader and Prime Minister, one must secure the support of 100 Conservative MPs by 2 p.m. on the 24th. Among the candidates who have declared or are likely to run, Sunak is the only one known to have secured support from 100 MPs.

As of this date, the BBC estimated that Sunak had secured support from 145 fellow MPs. FT also estimated that he had secured support from 138 MPs, already meeting the 100-MP registration requirement. In contrast, regarding the number of MPs supporting Johnson, the BBC counted 57, and FT counted only 52.

While Sunak officially declared his candidacy on the 23rd, Johnson had not officially announced his candidacy. Some Conservative MPs supporting Johnson reportedly hesitated to publicly endorse him first, fearing he might not run at all.

On the afternoon of the 22nd, Johnson discussed unification with Sunak but failed to reach an agreement, and Sunak declared his candidacy the following day.

On the 23rd, Johnson reportedly asked Penny Mordaunt, another candidate who declared her candidacy, to withdraw and support him. However, Mordaunt rejected Johnson's request and expressed her intention to complete the leadership race. She reportedly told her supporters that Johnson cannot unite the Conservative Party.

Mordaunt has secured support from 23 MPs according to the BBC and 24 MPs according to FT, making it uncertain whether she can reach the 100-MP threshold.

Given the current situation, Sunak is the only candidate likely to meet the registration requirements by the morning of the 24th, meaning he could be immediately confirmed as the next Prime Minister on the 24th.

While it cannot be completely ruled out that a third candidate securing support from 100 Conservative MPs might emerge, the possibility seems low. If there are two or more registered candidates, the next Prime Minister will be decided by a party member vote by 11 a.m. on the 28th.