Continued Rise in New COVID Variants and Reinfections... Growing Fear of the 'Twin-demic'

BF.7 Detection Rate at 1.8% and BA.2.75 at 3.3% Spreading in Europe
Reinfection Rate Expected to Rise Above 10%
Expansion of Nighttime Clinics and Promotion of COVID-Flu Dual Diagnostic Kits Underway

On the 18th, when the first cold wave advisory of the season was issued across inland areas and the coldest weather of this autumn arrived, citizens hurried on their way to work at Gwanghwamun Intersection in Seoul. Photo by Hyunmin Kim kimhyun81

[Asia Economy Reporter Jo In-kyung] As the decline in the COVID-19 resurgence shows signs of stagnation, new variant viruses continue to be imported from overseas. Since 1 in 10 confirmed cases are reinfections, concerns are rising that another COVID-19 wave could occur this winter, coinciding with the spread of seasonal flu.

According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 20th, the weekly COVID-19 risk level for the second week of this month (October 9?15) was assessed as "low" nationwide, in the metropolitan area, and in non-metropolitan areas. This marks the fourth consecutive week maintaining a low level since the third week of September. However, the decline in the epidemic has somewhat stagnated, with last week's weekly confirmed cases at 145,983, a 7% decrease from the previous week. This is about half the 15% decrease seen two weeks ago.

The effective reproduction number (Rt) was 0.89, maintaining below 1 for eight consecutive weeks, indicating suppression of the epidemic. The Rt values from the third week of September to last week were 0.80 → 0.80 → 0.87 → 0.89.

Last week, the number of new critically ill patients was 175, down 22% from the previous week, and deaths were 162, down 19%. The Central Disease Control Headquarters explained, "The numbers of new confirmed cases, critically ill patients, and deaths continue to decrease," adding, "The current rate of decline is in a stagnation phase, and due to the lifting of quarantine measures, increased face-to-face contact, and waning immunity, the situation is progressing with some fluctuations."

Increase in Detection Rate of New Variants

Looking at the detection rates of Omicron sublineage variants last week, the dominant BA.5 detection rate decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 89.3% compared to the previous week, while detection rates of other variants slightly increased. The detection rate of 'BF.7,' a subvariant of BA.5, rose by 0.5 percentage points to 1.8%, and the detection rate of BA.2.75, known as 'Centaurus,' also increased by 0.5 percentage points to 3.3%.

Lim Sook-young, head of the Central Disease Control Headquarters Situation Management Team, said at a briefing on the 19th, "COVID-19 cases are increasing recently in Germany, France, Belgium, and other countries, and the proportion of subvariants like BF.7 is also rising. Although there is no noticeable increase domestically, it is necessary to closely monitor the situation in Korea in line with trends in some overseas countries."

In the first week of this month (October 2?9), the estimated reinfection rate among weekly confirmed cases was 10.11%, similar to 10.21% in the fourth week of September. As of the 9th, among the cumulative 24,269,393 confirmed cases, 547,207 were estimated reinfections, accounting for 2.25% of all confirmed cases.

Lim said, "The duration of immunity from past infection lasts somewhat longer than vaccine-induced immunity but also wanes over time," adding, "Therefore, the current reinfection rate of 10% is expected to gradually increase."

Expansion of Medical Facilities for Young Children During Vulnerable Hours

The government has restructured the medical response system to prevent simultaneous outbreaks of seasonal flu and COVID-19, especially among pediatric populations. First, antiviral drugs are proactively prescribed for children aged 9 years and under (2 weeks to 9 years old), and children aged 13 and under (6 months to 13 years old), who are eligible for the national seasonal flu vaccination program, are encouraged to actively participate in vaccination. Additionally, the regulation requiring separation of time and space for treatment within respiratory patient clinics based on suspected COVID-19 status has been abolished to enable rapid treatment and diagnostic testing.

To ensure prompt hospitalization of pediatric patients, designated dedicated beds will focus on severe pediatric cases, and additional hospitals and clinics capable of treating pediatric confirmed cases will be secured during vulnerable hours such as nights, weekends, and holidays.

Since the 17th, the government has implemented a policy where patients visiting emergency rooms are treated first in principle, and rapid PCR (polymerase chain reaction) or rapid antigen tests (RAT) are used only when deemed necessary by medical staff. The 'simultaneous diagnostic test kit,' which can detect both COVID-19 and influenza in a single test, is expected to be utilized in the field soon.

Amid the issuance of an "Influenza Epidemic Advisory," on September 21, the first day of free influenza vaccinations for children, pregnant women, and the elderly, a child is receiving a vaccination at a pediatric clinic in Seoul. Photo by Mun Ho-nam munonam@

Lim said, "(Respiratory patients) have the inconvenience of having to take both flu and COVID-19 tests twice," adding, "The developer of the simultaneous diagnostic kit has submitted a health insurance reimbursement claim to the Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA), and the review process is currently underway. We will provide guidance once a decision is made."

He also emphasized, "Elderly and vulnerable groups who last received vaccination before August or were infected with COVID-19 before June must get additional vaccinations," adding, "This winter, both COVID-19 and influenza vaccines should be administered. Children, pregnant women, and the elderly are encouraged to visit nearby clinics or public health centers to receive flu vaccinations."

Following the emergency approval of Pfizer's bivalent COVID-19 vaccine, developed to respond to Omicron subvariants (BA.4, BA.5), on the 17th, the government plans to announce a vaccination plan utilizing this vaccine soon.