Is the Decline in COVID-19 Cases Over? Confirmed Cases Increase for Four Consecutive Days Compared to Last Week

Confirmed Cases Multiplied by 1.23 Times
"Likely Related to the Influx of Subvariants"

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Young-won] The number of COVID-19 confirmed cases, which had been declining for seven consecutive weeks, has recently shown a slight increase. Experts explained that this situation in quarantine is related to the influx of sub-variants other than BA.5.

For four consecutive days, the number of new COVID-19 confirmed cases was higher than the figures from the previous week. According to the Central Disease Control Headquarters on the 17th, the number of new confirmed cases on that day was 11,040, which is 2,065 more than the 10,975 cases reported on the same day last week, the 10th. This corresponds to approximately 1.23 times. On the 14th, the number of new confirmed cases was 1.06 times that of the previous week, 1.18 times on the 15th, and 1.22 times on the 16th.

Since September, when the re-outbreak showed a clear downward trend, this is the first time in four consecutive days that the number of confirmed cases has increased compared to the previous week. Although there was an increase in confirmed cases for two days during the Chuseok holiday in mid-September, the ratio of confirmed cases compared to the previous week remained below 1 thereafter.

The infection reproduction number, an indicator used to gauge the spread of the epidemic, has also risen. The infection reproduction number increased from 0.80 in the third and fourth weeks of last month to 0.87 in the first week of this month. This number indicates how many people one infected person transmits the virus to. A value below 1 means the epidemic is being suppressed, but the previously continuous decline has rebounded after three weeks.

The quarantine authorities also observed a slowdown in the rate of decline in the epidemic. In forecasts released by seven research teams from the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency, the teams noted that "although the decline continues after the epidemic peak, the speed has slowed." Son Young-rae, head of the Social Strategy Division at the Central Disaster and Safety Countermeasures Headquarters, said at a briefing on the 14th regarding recent trends in confirmed cases that it is a "stagnation phase," but added, "However, we need to observe the situation until about next week to determine how it will change."

Experts believe the recent rebound in confirmed cases is related to the "influx of variants." Professor Kim Woo-joo, an infectious disease specialist at Korea University Guro Hospital, said, "There must be seeds for branches to grow and flowers to bloom," emphasizing that "variants are the core reason" for the increase in confirmed cases. Professor Kim explained, "BA.4.6 and BQ.1.1 are increasing in the United States, and BF.7 in Europe, but since entry testing is not mandatory, variants inevitably enter the country." The quarantine authorities also forecast that unless there is a major variable such as the spread of a new variant, the possibility of an increase in confirmed cases over the next month is low.