North Korea Fires Another Missile One Day Before Workers' Party Founding Anniversary

Estimated Short-Range Ballistic Missile with 350km Flight Distance... Japan Considers SLBM
North Korea Intends to Cause Fatigue by Changing Location and Time for Consecutive Launches

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] On the 9th, a day before North Korea's "largest political holiday," the Workers' Party Foundation Day, North Korea launched two short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs).

On the same day, the Joint Chiefs of Staff stated, "From around 1:48 a.m. to 1:58 a.m., North Korea launched two SRBMs from the Muncheon area (north of Wonsan) in Gangwon Province towards the East Sea," adding, "The two missiles were detected flying approximately 350 km, reaching an altitude of about 90 km, and traveling at a speed of about Mach 5 (five times the speed of sound). The detailed specifications are currently being precisely analyzed by South Korean and U.S. intelligence authorities."

Muncheon is the location of a naval base, where base renovation work was detected in 2016. The Japanese Ministry of Defense announced it would investigate whether the North Korean missiles were submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), but South Korean military authorities reportedly consider this possibility to be low based on the circumstances.

This is the first time since April 2020 that North Korea has launched missiles from Muncheon, when it fired short-range cruise missiles. It is analyzed that North Korea demonstrated its "customized" launch capability by varying the launch time and location according to target objectives. This is also the first time this year that North Korea has launched missiles during late-night hours, despite frequent ballistic missile provocations recently.

From the 25th of last month to this day, North Korea has launched its seventh ballistic missile within fifteen days. It launched one SRBM from the Taecheon area in North Pyongan Province on the 25th of last month; two from the Sunan area in Pyongyang on the 28th; two from the Sunchon area in South Pyongan Province on the 29th; two from the Sunan area in Pyongyang on the 1st of this month; and two from the Samseok area in Pyongyang on the 6th, all towards the East Sea. On the 4th, it launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM), presumed to be a Hwasong-12, at maximum range, recording a flight distance of 4,500 km.

This appears to be an attempt to test the combined readiness posture of South Korea and the U.S. and to cause fatigue to the South Korean military and government authorities by conducting launches during early morning hours. There is also analysis that the launch time was chosen to coincide with the time when South Korea and the U.S. fired two ATACMS (Army Tactical Missile System) missiles each into the East Sea in response to North Korea’s IRBM provocation around 1 a.m. on the 5th. Previously, North Korea also launched missiles at times such as 6:10 p.m. (September 28) and 8:48 p.m. (September 29).

North Korea Likely to Continue Additional Provocations Instead of Military Parade on October 10 Workers' Party Foundation Day - This Year’s Foundation Day, Not a Jubilee Year, May Prompt Military Provocation Cards in Response to South Korea and U.S.

North Korea is expected to continue provocations instead of holding a military parade on the Workers' Party Foundation Day on October 10. A military official said, "North Korea, which held a late-night military parade on the Workers' Party Foundation Day in the past, is not showing signs of a parade this year," adding, "They are likely to suppress festive atmosphere and increase the possibility of additional military provocations."

North Korea designates and commemorates October 10, 1945, when President Kim Il-sung delivered the keynote speech at the Conference of Party Leaders and Enthusiasts of the Northwest Five Provinces of the Korean Communist Party, as the Party Foundation Day.

Two years ago, on the 75th anniversary of the Party Foundation Day, North Korea held its first late-night military parade, celebrating the occasion noisily with LED lighting. The U.S. was shown a large-scale unveiling of strategic weapons, including a new 22-axle super-large intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) and a new submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).

However, this year marks the 77th anniversary of the Workers' Party Foundation, which is not a jubilee year divisible by 5 or 10, so it is interpreted that North Korea will not hold a large-scale military parade.

However, since the annual visit to the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun, where the bodies of Kim Il-sung and Kim Jong-il are enshrined, is held every year on the Party Foundation Day, it is highly likely that this schedule will proceed this year as well. Attention is also focused on whether Chairman Kim will deliver a speech. Last year, through a lecture speech, he repeatedly emphasized the Party's important tasks and internal unity.

The possibility of additional provocations by North Korea is high. Following consecutive SRBM launches and an escalation in provocation levels, expectations are growing that test launches of submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) and new liquid-fueled intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) are imminent.

Meanwhile, immediately after the missile launch, General Kim Seung-gyeom, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, shared the situation through a coordination meeting with General Paul LaCamera, Commander of U.S. Forces Korea.

The military added, "In preparation for additional provocations by North Korea, we will maintain a firm readiness posture while closely tracking and monitoring related developments under close cooperation between South Korea and the U.S."