[Preview of US Midterm Elections①] Biden Judgment or Trump Judgment... A Close Race in the Fog

President Joe Biden of the United States [Photo by AP]

[Asia Economy New York=Special Correspondent Josel Gina] “46% to 46%.” This is the ratio of voters who recently responded that they support the ruling Democratic Party and the opposition Republican Party in a poll conducted by NBC News in the United States. The U.S. midterm elections, held every four years, are generally considered a graveyard for the ruling party, but this year’s race is tighter than usual.

The results of this election, which will determine the power in the U.S. Congress, will inevitably affect not only the remainder of President Joe Biden’s term but also the upcoming 2024 presidential election. This is why the contest is often described as a ‘mini-election’ between President Biden and his political rival, former President Donald Trump.

◆Republicans Likely to Recapture House…Tight Race in Senate

In the election scheduled for November 8 (local time), 35 of the 100 Senate seats and all 435 House seats will be up for election. In short, it will be the day to decide whether the Republican Party will recapture both the Senate and the House, currently controlled by the Democrats, or take only one, or lose both. Although Election Day is November 8, voting begins earlier in many states. Notably, eight states?Arizona, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Florida?are classified as key battlegrounds.

US Midterm Elections

According to Cook Report on the 7th, as of the 5th, among the 435 House seats, 177 seats are confirmed or highly likely to be won by Democratic candidates. On the other hand, Republicans are projected to secure 202 seats. In the remaining battleground districts, Democrats lead in 20 seats, and Republicans in 10 seats. At this point, about a month before the midterm elections, it is virtually confirmed that the Republicans are likely to recapture the House.

Another election forecasting site, FiveThirtyEight, released a midterm election forecast earlier this month, showing that the probability of Republicans securing a majority in the House is 69%, far ahead of the Democrats’ 31%. To secure a majority in the House, a total of 218 seats is required. Currently, the Democrats hold the House narrowly with 220 seats to 212, including three vacancies.

Especially, the Senate race, where one-third of the seats are up for election, is even tighter. The seats already held or likely to be won by Democrats and Republicans are counted as 46 each. Among the eight battleground states, Colorado and Arizona lean Democratic, while Wisconsin, Ohio, North Carolina, and Florida lean Republican.

Ultimately, the direction of congressional power is expected to be decided in the ultra-competitive battleground states of Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Georgia. Locally, the consensus is that the Democrats will maintain the majority in the Senate.

◆Biden’s Support Rate Recovers to the 40% Range After Sharp Drop…Election Also a Close Contest

Initially, there were strong voices in U.S. politics that the Democrats would lose majority control of both the Senate and the House in this midterm election. This was due to the economic responsibility theory targeting President Biden, as inflation in the U.S. soared to its highest level in 40 years amid ongoing supply chain disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Biden’s approval rating, which was 50% in his first year in office, fell to the 30% range in the first half of this year.

The election trend, which had early forecasts of a Republican landslide, began to shift slightly from summer. It is evaluated that the conservative-controlled Supreme Court’s June decision to overturn ‘Roe v. Wade,’ which recognized abortion as a constitutional right, galvanized the progressive camp. Additionally, the Biden administration achieved legislative successes by passing the Chips and Science Act (CSA) and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) consecutively. Consequently, President Biden’s approval rating began to recover. In a recent NPR poll, Biden’s approval rating rose to 44%.

However, with U.S. inflation still in the 8% range and concerns about recession due to aggressive tightening spreading, economic responsibility and regime judgment theories surrounding President Biden remain. This is why the economy is cited as the biggest variable in the remaining month.

Especially, midterm elections, usually held in the second year of a presidency, have a strong character of regime judgment. Historically, U.S. midterm elections have been almost a ‘graveyard’ for incumbent presidents. Since the two-party system, out of 40 midterm elections, the opposition party has won 37 times. The only exceptions where the ruling party won were in 1934 during the Great Depression (President Franklin Roosevelt), in 1998 amid impeachment backlash and economic boom (President Bill Clinton), and in 2002 shortly after the 9/11 attacks (President George W. Bush).

Former U.S. President Donald Trump [Photo by Reuters]

◆Biden vs. Trump Setup…Impact Through Next Presidential Election

In recent months leading up to the election, the contest between President Biden and former President Trump has intensified. In the earlier Republican primaries, candidates classified as pro-Trump made significant advances, increasing Trump’s presence within the party. This is why the midterm election is seen not just as a rematch of the presidential election two years ago but as a so-called ‘mini-election’ ahead of the 2024 presidential race.

Both parties, rallying their bases, appear to be leveraging this setup in the midterm election. Last month, President Biden visited the battleground state of Pennsylvania and fiercely attacked former President Trump and his supporters, calling them the ‘MAGA (Make America Great Again)’ forces, saying they “threaten democratic values” and “represent extremism.” MAGA is Trump’s campaign slogan. By highlighting the far-right nature of Trump, Biden aimed to shake the centrist vote with a ‘Trump vs. anti-Trump’ dynamic.

On the other hand, those who support America First policies or express disappointment with Biden’s administration still back former President Trump. Persistent inflation, economic slowdown, increased crime after the pandemic, and immigration issues all work against Biden and the Democrats. The so-called ‘shy Trump’ phenomenon, previously observed, cannot be ignored. Justin Gest, a professor at George Mason University’s School of Policy, noted in a discussion yesterday that “it is impossible to eliminate social issues like America First, and sometimes these are used to gain an advantage in elections.”

For the Democrats, winning this midterm election, which has a strong regime judgment character, would secure control over governance for the remaining term and pave a solid path toward the 2024 presidential election. Similarly, the Republicans must seize control of Congress and spread the judgment theory to recreate their regime. Moreover, this election is regarded as a major momentum that will determine whether President Biden and former President Trump will run again in the presidential race.

If the Republicans take control of Congress, significant political changes are expected. The Washington Post (WP) analyzed scenarios suggesting that investigations into Hunter Biden, President Biden’s second son, could resume, and the House committee investigating the January 6 riot might be disbanded. Recent aspects related to the FBI’s search of Mar-a-Lago resort are also expected to be reexamined.

If the Republicans recapture only the House, the Biden administration’s governance is expected to face difficulties, with legislative initiatives likely to be blocked. Conversely, if the Democrats maintain majority control of both chambers, the Biden administration is expected to pursue additional legislation focusing on progressive issues such as abortion rights. Additionally, the newspaper analyzed that the administration might emphasize former President Trump’s responsibility for the January 6 incident and expand judicial risks to prevent his 2024 presidential run.