Failure Extends to Special Forces... Russia's Situation Worsens

Russian Special Forces 'Spetsnaz' Estimated to Have Lost 75% of Troops After Ukraine War
Following Consecutive Defeats... "Putin's Misguided Nazism Justifies the War," Internal Criticism Emerges

On the 19th of last month (local time), the Ukrainian flag was hung at the entrance of Kupiansk village in the northeastern Kharkiv Oblast, recently recaptured by the Ukrainian army. The Ukrainian forces announced that the day before, they controlled both banks of the Oskil River, which runs through Kupiansk, a key city in Kharkiv Oblast, and established a bridgehead on the Oskil River for an eastern advance. Photo by the Office of the President of Ukraine [Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Yoon Seul-gi] The situation on the battlefield is deteriorating as the Russian military suffers consecutive defeats. Since the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian forces are estimated to have lost up to 80,000 personnel. Although the Russian government has initiated troop replenishment through a mobilization order, analysts say it is unlikely that the tide of the war will turn.

According to the recent Russian edition of the BBC, nine members of the elite Russian special forces unit Spetsnaz deployed to the Lyman front in Ukraine have died, and one has been seriously injured. The GRU (Main Intelligence Directorate) 3rd Brigade Spetsnaz is known as one of Russia's top special forces units worldwide, but since the war began last February, repeated personnel losses have left an estimated three-quarters of its members dead or wounded and unable to fight.

The media analyzed conversations shared by Spetsnaz members with their families on social networking services (SNS) and found a sharp increase in memorial messages for comrades between September 30 and October 1, when the Ukrainian forces were reclaiming the area.

The messages included phrases such as "The entire 3rd Brigade was thrown into the meat grinder and discarded," "Such sad news. My brothers, friends, commanders, and good people have died. We will miss you," and "They carried out the Ukraine operation with utmost sincerity. My brother is dead. My hero!"?all implying death.

BBC estimated at least 56 deaths based on the SNS activities of the unit members and the lists of fallen soldiers they posted. Among every four fallen soldiers, one was an officer or higher. Although the exact size of the Spetsnaz brigade is unknown, BBC claimed that considering the number of deaths they tallied and the overall decline in troop numbers, the unit may have suffered losses of up to 75% of its personnel.

Vladimir Putin, President of Russia [Image source=Yonhap News]

U.S. and U.K. officials estimate that since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February, about 200,000 troops have been deployed, with up to 80,000 casualties including deaths and injuries. In August, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace stated, "The Russian military has lost about 80,000 personnel through deaths, injuries, and desertions as of this month, leaving it in a very vulnerable state."

Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a mobilization order for 300,000 reservists to secure manpower, but as Russian defeats continue and the situation worsens, public opinion appears to be deteriorating. On the 6th (local time), according to U.S. CNN, Andrey Kartapolov, chairman of the Defense Committee of the Russian State Duma, raised his voice in an interview with pro-Putin broadcaster Vladimir Solovyov, saying, "Russian senior officials need to stop lying and tell the truth."

He explained, "The Russian city of Valuyki is under continuous attack," adding, "We get information from governors, war correspondents, and Telegram. But the Ministry of Defense's reports essentially do not change. They say things like they destroyed 300 rockets and killed Nazis." Kartapolov also criticized President Putin, saying, "We know everything. We are not stupid," and accused him of "using false Nazi narratives to justify the war."

Even if the mobilization order fills the ranks, skepticism remains about the possibility of turning the tide of the war. Doug Klain, a researcher at the U.S. think tank Atlantic Council, described those being mobilized as "cannon fodder" in a Foreign Policy (FP) article.

Klain pointed out, "Russians are panicking over the reality that anyone caught in the Russian military's wide net is sent to the battlefield with minimal training," adding, "Deploying untrained, unequipped people, most of whom have no will to fight in Ukraine, will be an unprecedented massacre in modern warfare."

Meanwhile, as the Russian military is pushed onto the defensive, President Putin has mentioned the possibility of using nuclear weapons. In a speech after signing treaties to annex four occupied Ukrainian territories on the 30th of last month, he said, "Russia will use all means to defend its territory," referencing the precedent of the United States using nuclear weapons against Japan during World War II.

In response, U.S. President Joe Biden likened the current situation to "Armageddon" (the final war of humanity described in the Bible), saying nuclear threats have reached a peak. According to foreign media including AP and Bloomberg on the 7th (local time), President Biden said at a Democratic Senate campaign reception that "when Vladimir Putin mentions tactical nuclear or biochemical weapons, he is not joking."

Biden also referred to the 1962 Cuban Missile Crisis, an event during the East-West Cold War when the Soviet Union, the predecessor of Russia, deployed nuclear weapons in Cuba, close to the U.S., bringing the world to the brink of nuclear war. He said, "Since John F. Kennedy and the Cuban Missile Crisis, we have never faced the possibility of Armageddon."