Lee Jun-seok Faces the Biggest Crisis in His Political Career... Is the Formation of a New Party Possible?

Political Commentators: "If Not Nominated, Forming a New Party Is the Only Way"
Close Aide Kim Yong-tae: "It Doesn't Seem Possible Now," Will Seek Opportunities Within the Party

Former People Power Party leader Lee Jun-seok is attending the hearing for the suspension of the People Power Party's party constitution effectiveness injunction held at the Seoul Southern District Court in Yangcheon-gu, Seoul on the 28th of last month. Photo by National Assembly Press Photographers Group

[Asia Economy Reporter Kang Juhee] Former People Power Party (PPP) leader Lee Jun-seok’s injunction request against the party was entirely dismissed, making it impossible for him to return to his leadership position. Furthermore, with the PPP deciding on additional disciplinary actions, it is highly likely that Lee will not receive a nomination for the 2024 general election. As political activities under the PPP banner become virtually impossible, speculation about Lee’s future course of action includes the possibility of founding a new party.

On the 6th, the Civil Division 51 of the Seoul Southern District Court (Presiding Judge Hwang Jeong-su) dismissed all injunction requests filed by Lee against Emergency Response Committee Chairman Jeong Jin-seok and six committee members seeking suspension of their duties. The third injunction request, which sought to suspend the PPP National Committee’s resolution to amend the party constitution, was also dismissed.

On the 7th, the PPP Ethics Committee decided on an additional disciplinary action of 'one-year suspension of party membership' against Lee. This was due to Lee’s repeated injunction requests aimed at blocking the party’s constitutional amendments and the formation of a new emergency committee, which were established as party policies, as well as his continuous insulting remarks directed at President Yoon Suk-yeol and party leadership.

Previously, in July, Lee was disciplined with a 'six-month suspension of party membership' over allegations of instructing the destruction of evidence related to a sexual bribery scandal. With this additional sanction, Lee’s party membership is suspended until January 2024. This effectively blocks his challenge in the next party leadership election and casts doubt on his nomination for the general election scheduled for April 2024. Although Lee’s party membership will be restored before the general election, it is widely expected that securing a nomination will be difficult given his two prior heavy disciplinary actions.

Consequently, regardless of Lee’s intentions, speculation about founding a new party has been circulating within and outside political circles as his next move. After the injunction ruling, Lee posted a brief statement on Facebook saying, "I fought alone with honorable and excellent lawyers and legal arguments, and I will continue to walk my path more lonely and solitary." While he did not explicitly mention plans to found a new party, this is interpreted as his intention to continue political activities.

Political experts predict that if Lee continues his political career, founding a new party is the most likely scenario. Jang Seong-cheol, director of the Public Opinion Center, appeared on YTN’s 'News Evening' and said, "Usually, during nominations, about 50% of incumbent lawmakers are not nominated under the pretext of reform nominations," adding, "Given the mixed-member proportional representation system, (Lee) is expected to form a party with capable individuals emerging from there and establish a negotiating group."

He continued, "Lee himself must run, and to exert influence in the 2027 presidential election, he realistically needs to secure a meaningful number of seats in 2024," adding, "If he continues in politics and cannot run under the People Power Party platform, founding a new party is inevitable."

Political commentator Kim Sang-il also said on YTN’s 'Night Focus,' "The only way for Lee to restore his honor is through elections," adding, "The first was the party leadership election, and the second is the general election. If the party does not nominate him for the general election, the only way to run is by founding a new party."

However, Lee has consistently expressed a negative stance regarding founding a new party. Even while engaged in legal battles with the PPP, he repeatedly posted on Facebook urging party membership enrollment, working to build a support base. Some speculate that he will continue to grow his influence within the party through anti-Yoon sentiment and wait for an appropriate opportunity, as he has done so far.

Kim Yong-tae, a former Supreme Council member and close aide to Lee, said in an interview with SBS Radio on the 7th, "I met Lee for the first time in a while after the court decision. We didn’t discuss future plans in detail, but it seems unlikely that he will found a new party at this time," adding, "He intends to continue offline and online meetings with many people both inside and outside the party. He also seems to plan to actively encourage party membership enrollment."