[Lee Boram's Senior Trend] We Need Demographic Imagination

In the era of longevity, we are still not prepared for a life that lasts up to 100 years. However, gerontologists are debating that with advancements in technology and medicine, people may live up to 130 or even 150 years. Just how long can humans live?

Last year, I attended a workshop lecture titled "Living to 100" by Kim Hyung-seok, a 102-year-old philosopher and professor emeritus at Yonsei University. What left the strongest impression was his discussion on "When is the golden age of life?" He concluded that it is between 60 and 65 years old because from 60, one can truly believe in oneself and live authentically. This is despite the fact that most dramas and movies depict the 20s as youth and the golden age.

Mauro Guillen, author of "The Great Demographic Reversal," stated, "As 2030 approaches and the conventional definitions of youth and aging disappear, the dynamics between generations will also change. We can no longer equate vitality with youth, nor view decline as the exclusive domain of the elderly." This aligns with the same perspective.

We can foresee a certain predetermined future because demographic changes are predictable on a large scale. Six years ago, Professor Cho Young-tae of Seoul National University’s Graduate School of Public Health published "The Determined Future," and in 2021, he released a new book titled "Population Future Coexistence." I once attended his lecture called "Demography: A Tool Needed for Future Planning." He showed a video titled "Population Projection of the Republic of Korea," which was shocking.

The video depicted the population pyramid rapidly narrowing and shrinking from 49 million in 2021 to 19 million in 2100. As a demographer, he illustrated the flow of the native population excluding migration among the phenomena of birth, migration, and death. Additionally, he pointed out that some anticipated possibilities have materialized over time, such as "retirement age extension" and "appointment crises."

Population decline is not necessarily negative; some view it positively from the perspectives of domestic competition and global environmental concerns. It is thought that fierce job competition, social tension, and environmental destruction might lessen. While there is some agreement with this view, unfortunately, this demographic shift is a massive wave that impacts various aspects in different ways. Even if it does not directly affect me, other regions or environments may not be so fortunate. Population decline differentially affects specific age groups, regions, and industries, and its ripple effects spread widely.

Conflicts among "groups" have already begun. Due to the concentration in the metropolitan area, other regions face real difficulties such as the "university cherry blossom ending" phenomenon, bus route cancellations due to decreased users in disappearing areas, and labor shortages during farming seasons. Moreover, rapid aging has led to a decrease in the workforce, causing social security costs related to welfare to rise sharply and intensifying generational conflicts.

However, crisis is opportunity?if we prepare thoroughly. What should we do?

First, diversification of perspectives and embracing diversity are necessary. Having spent most of my 30s abroad, I returned to Korea and went through a second adaptation period suffocated by rigid gender roles and age frameworks. Fixed notions like "it must be this way" or prejudices that see only two paths of right and wrong stifle imagination. I believe that free thinking and diversity must exert more power to plan for the future.

Second, let us create a timetable for future planning. Demographic research methods and projection techniques can help predict when and how the sizes of various population groups will change. This means analyzing when, where, and to whom the impacts of population decline and aging will occur, and preparing countermeasures in advance.

The government has formed a Population and Future Strategy Task Force (TF) team, and related policies are being announced. Future planning is also important for companies (organizations). In 2018, Forbes predicted that "population aging will become a blessing for companies."

On a personal level, we should not just wait passively. We may need to transform ourselves multiple times by changing jobs and careers. Therefore, periodic life planning suited to the times is necessary. This includes health management as well as preparing diverse competencies.

The future has not yet arrived, and there is still time and ways to shape it. We need demographic imagination.

Lee Boram, CEO of Third Age