[Yang Nak-gyu's Defence Club] Who is the Stronger Submarine Force Between North and South Korea?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Yang Nak-gyu, Military Specialist Reporter] Interest is growing in the submarine forces of North and South Korea as joint anti-submarine warfare exercises are conducted by the navies of South Korea, the United States, and the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force.

Submarines are naval vessels capable of stealthy underwater navigation. The reason why the three countries?South Korea, the U.S., and Japan?conduct joint anti-submarine exercises is because detecting submarines is extremely difficult. In fact, it has long been a well-known anecdote that even the U.S. cannot detect our submarines during joint exercises.

According to the Jane's Yearbook published by the British military journal IHS Jane's, there are 43 countries worldwide that possess submarines. Among them, North Korea owns over 70 submarines. In terms of quantity alone, it stands shoulder to shoulder with the United States (72 vessels) and China (63 vessels).

During the Korean War, Kim Il-sung regarded the lack of submarine forces as the biggest reason for North Korea's defeat. Following the Incheon Landing Operation, North Korea actively considered acquiring submarines. They quickly developed new 3,000-ton class submarines, which enabled them to complete submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs).

Recently, in addition to the existing Sinpo-class and Romeo-class upgraded new submarines, it is known that North Korea is constructing large 4,000 to 5,000-ton class SLBM submarines capable of carrying about six SLBMs. The upgraded Romeo-class new submarine is about 80 meters long with a displacement close to 3,000 tons and is estimated to carry three SLBMs. It is comparable to South Korea’s Dosan Ahn Changho-class submarine (length 83.5m, 3,200-ton class) and Japan’s Soryu-class submarine (length 84m, 4,200-ton class).

With the South Korea-U.S.-Japan anti-submarine exercises underway, there are forecasts that North Korea will boldly demonstrate its power by launching SLBMs.

The military reported signs related to North Korea’s SLBM launch to President Yoon Suk-yeol on the 24th. According to the presidential office, President Yoon held a security situation briefing with his aides on board the presidential plane before it took off for his return after completing his overseas trip. If North Korea launches SLBMs, the timing is likely to be around October 10, the founding day of the Workers' Party of Korea, one of North Korea’s four major holidays. It is also speculated that North Korea will test-fire SLBMs and publicize them to emphasize deterrence against South Korea and the U.S. while fostering internal unity.

It is unusual that the presidential office, rather than the military, disclosed North Korea’s SLBM launch preparations first. This is interpreted as the presidential office proactively releasing related intelligence to send a message of restraint regarding North Korean provocations. It is also seen as a ‘dilution’ strategy to reduce the impact of provocations even if North Korea actually fires SLBMs.

If North Korea launches SLBMs, it is likely to be around the 75th anniversary of the founding of the Workers' Party of Korea on October 10. There is a high possibility that the Pukguksong-3 missile, which succeeded in a test launch last October, will be fired from an upgraded Romeo-class submarine. This is because an underwater launch test of the Pukguksong-3 has not yet been conducted.

Last year, the South Korean Navy demonstrated the ability to launch SLBMs consecutively. A test was conducted on the 3,000-ton class first submarine, Dosan Ahn Changho, where two SLBMs were launched consecutively at 20-second intervals. The missiles flew over 400 km and reportedly hit all targets.

The second and third 3,000-ton class submarines, Anmu and Shin Chae-ho, have already been completed and are currently undergoing sea trials and evaluations. These submarines are known to have six vertical launch tubes for SLBMs. Currently, the countries operating SLBMs are the United States, Russia, China, the United Kingdom, France, and India?six countries in total. South Korea became the seventh SLBM-operating country following its first successful launch in 2020.