[Opinion] Growing Risk of Global War

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a military mobilization order on the 21st to call up 300,000 reservists. This is the first time Russia has issued a military mobilization order since World War II. This comes after the Ukrainian military recently recaptured part of the northeastern Kharkiv territory, putting Russia on the defensive, and immediately following a summit meeting between Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan on the 15th. The 300,000 reservists to be called up this time are those with military service, combat experience, and special military skills. Until now, Russia has referred to the invasion of Ukraine as a "special military operation" and has procured troops through support soldiers and mercenaries.

Meanwhile, four separatist regions within Ukraine and Russian-occupied territories (Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, Zaporizhzhia) held referendums between the 23rd and 27th of this month on joining Russia. The results showed support for annexation, and once the Russian parliament passes the annexation bill and Putin signs it, it will take effect immediately. Even if it has no international effect, Russia will claim it as such. Russia’s territory will increase by 100,000 km², and its population by about 5 million. This will be a significant turning point in the Ukraine war.

After annexation, Russia will officially declare war if Ukraine does not fully withdraw from the four regions. Once the annexed regions become Russian territory and their residents become Russian citizens, any attack on these areas will be considered an attack on Russia. The special military operation will end, and a war involving Russia as a party will begin. To force Ukraine’s surrender, Russia will attempt to eliminate command structures and launch large-scale attacks on key infrastructure such as power grids, transportation facilities, and communication networks. Additional areas like Odesa could also be targeted.

The annexation and mobilization order have increased the risk of direct military confrontation between Russia and NATO member countries. The United States and NATO have been providing weapons and other support to Ukraine. If the US and NATO directly clash in a war involving Russia, it could escalate into a world war. The war zone could also expand beyond Ukraine. Moreover, the possibility of nuclear weapons being used has increased. In particular, President Putin has hinted at the possibility of using nuclear weapons and declared that this is not a bluff.

Russian Security Council Deputy Chairman Medvedev also stated that Russia could use its weapons, including strategic nuclear weapons, to defend newly annexed territories such as Donbas. Josep Borrell, the European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, warned that Russia would use nuclear weapons if it found itself in trouble. Charles Richard, Commander of the US Strategic Command, said the US Department of Defense takes Russia’s nuclear threats very seriously.

As winter approaches, Russia expects Europe’s suffering to worsen due to rising energy costs and reduced gas supplies. Russia believes this will weaken Europe’s resolve toward Ukraine. It aims to increase the intensity of its offensive to overpower the West. Russia expects China, India, and other countries to ease pressure on it. The door to negotiations is effectively closed. Russia is trying to avoid sinking deeper into the quagmire of Ukraine. Now the ball is in the West’s court. The US and NATO must decide whether to continue supporting Ukraine and to what extent. We may be witnessing the most dangerous moment since World War II. There is a risk of a catastrophic nuclear war. We must not let our guard down and should closely monitor the flow of international affairs.

Kim Dong-gi, author of "The Power of Geopolitics"