[Insight & Opinion] Will Putin Use Nuclear Weapons?

[Asia Economy] On the 21st, Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a partial mobilization of about 300,000 troops for the first time since World War II, simultaneously mentioning the possibility of using nuclear weapons, which has heightened global tensions. In his statement, President Putin targeted the West, emphasizing that Russia possesses various means of destruction, including nuclear weapons, and will mobilize all necessary measures if required.

Following the recent successful large-scale counteroffensive by Ukrainian forces against Russian troops on the eastern front, Russia, cornered, is increasingly likely to use nuclear weapons in combat for the first time since World War II. On the 17th, U.S. President Joe Biden publicly urged President Putin in an interview not to use tactical nuclear weapons, which is seen as a warning by the U.S. after monitoring Russia’s movements and attempting to deter them.

If Russia uses nuclear weapons, it is more likely to deploy small-scale tactical nuclear weapons on the front lines rather than megaton-class strategic nuclear weapons targeting major cities. The most realistic scenario would be Russia using nuclear weapons with yields of several kilotons in areas densely occupied by Ukrainian forces when it becomes difficult to defend against Ukrainian attacks or when launching an offensive. Witnessing a mushroom cloud rising on the front lines would shock the world profoundly. If, at that time, Russia warns that it will not hesitate to use additional nuclear weapons should the West, including the U.S., continue supporting Ukraine and imposing sanctions on Russia, how should the world respond?

If the U.S. and other Western countries succumb to Russia’s threats and halt support for Ukraine, Russia would easily win the war. However, if Western countries do not yield and continue their support, Russia may carry out additional nuclear attacks, which would likely cause great anxiety and division among European countries bordering Ukraine.

The U.S. would likely warn Russia that any further nuclear use after the initial deployment would provoke a nuclear strike in retaliation. However, it is difficult to believe that the U.S. would carry out nuclear retaliation against Russia if Russia ignores this warning and continues using nuclear weapons. This is because a U.S. nuclear strike on Russian territory would inevitably provoke a counterattack from Russia, leading to World War III and global annihilation.

If the U.S. provides tactical nuclear weapons to Ukraine for retaliation, and Ukraine uses them against Russian forces on the front lines, Russia could respond by using strategic nuclear weapons targeting major Ukrainian cities. Since Ukraine is not a NATO member, the U.S. and Western countries would be unlikely to risk their own citizens to protect Ukraine, making it probable they would acquiesce to Russia’s demands, resulting in a Russian victory.

In this case, the concept of a nuclear umbrella?where the U.S. pledges to provide nuclear weapons to allied countries without their own nuclear arsenals?would be nullified. Consequently, public opinion in countries like South Korea and Japan, which face immediate nuclear threats from North Korea, would inevitably push for independent nuclear armament. If North Korea or China threatens to use nuclear weapons to prevent this, the possibility of armed conflict in East Asia would rapidly increase.

During the Cold War, the U.S. and the Soviet Union came close to nuclear war several times but avoided the worst outcomes through wise decisions and leadership. It remains to be seen whether humanity can once again make prudent choices to escape the threat of mutual destruction this time.

Choi Jun-young, Legal Expert at Yulchon LLC