[Special Report] "China's Risky Taiwan Invasion Possible... 2027 Is the Turning Point"

CSIS US Expert Survey
'72% Responded Possible Invasion Within 10 Years'
Impact on US Allies in Asia Including Korea

[Asia Economy Reporter Hyunwoo Lee] U.S. President Joe Biden has declared military intervention in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, signaling a major shift in Taiwan policy and causing a seismic shift in Northeast Asian security. If the U.S. moves to defend Taiwan in an emergency, U.S. allies in Asia, including South Korea, will be directly affected.

Domestic companies with business ties to Taiwan are also closely monitoring the possibility of a Chinese invasion and are reportedly establishing contingency plans for emergencies. Many Taiwan experts in the U.S. predict that China will invade Taiwan within the next decade, warning that the invasion could take place around 2027, when Chinese President Xi Jinping’s lifetime rule system is expected to be completed.

◇When Will Xi Jinping Make a Decision?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

The U.S. think tank Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) conducted a survey from the 10th of last month to the 8th of this month targeting 64 current and former officials and experts on Taiwan issues in the U.S. When asked whether China is likely to launch an amphibious operation to invade Taiwan within the next 10 years, 63% answered "there is a possibility." Combining "likely (8%)" and "definitely (1%)," 72% of respondents viewed the possibility of a Taiwan invasion within 10 years as high.

Concerns about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan appear to have intensified following U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan earlier last month. In protest of Pelosi’s visit to South Korea, China conducted a blockade operation around Taiwan and has continued military provocations such as deploying attack drones. Many have likened China’s blockade of Taiwan to a war simulation.

On the 18th, President Biden appeared on CBS’s ‘60 Minutes’ and stated that the U.S. could intervene if China invades Taiwan. Shortly after this statement, on the 20th, U.S. and Canadian warships passed through the Taiwan Strait. Separately, the U.S. Congress is accelerating the passage of the Taiwan Policy Act (TPA), which treats Taiwan as an ally. If this law passes, China’s backlash and military provocations are expected to intensify further.

Many experts see 2027 as a turning point for China’s invasion of Taiwan. The year 2027 marks the end of Xi Jinping’s third term and his attempt to establish a lifetime leadership system, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, and the completion of the military modernization efforts previously announced by the Chinese government. According to the CSIS survey, 83% of respondents believe it is unlikely that China will launch a direct military invasion of Taiwan before 2027. The analysis suggests that President Xi will focus on consolidating his foundation for lifetime rule rather than directly invading Taiwan.

However, some warn that since Xi Jinping will need to achieve the great cause of Chinese national unification to enter a fourth term after his third term ends in 2027, he may undertake a risky invasion.

Bonnie Glaser, director at the German Marshall Fund, a U.S. think tank, warned, "Even if the Chinese military is not fully prepared, if Taiwan concretely pursues independence, Xi Jinping would not hesitate to wage war."

◇"Strategic Ambiguity Is Dead"

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

President Biden’s recent statement on defending Taiwan is interpreted as signaling a major change in U.S. Taiwan policy. It marks a shift from the over 40-year-old policy of ‘Strategic Ambiguity’ to ‘Strategic Clarity.’

Previously, the U.S. established diplomatic relations with China in 1979 and severed ties with Taiwan, enacting the Taiwan Relations Act. This act does not recognize Taiwan as a state based on China’s ‘One China’ principle but provides a legal basis for the U.S. to continue supplying Taiwan with self-defense means. The policy aimed to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait through strategic ambiguity, deterring China from using force or unifying Taiwan by force without formally recognizing Taiwan as a state.

However, since taking office, President Biden has repeatedly stated that the U.S. military would directly defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion, statements inconsistent with the strategic ambiguity policy. Since August last year, this is the fourth time he has promised to defend Taiwan. The political media outlet Politico analyzed this as an attempt to reestablish deterrence against China by demonstrating greater resolve and clarity after four consecutive promises to defend Taiwan.

If the U.S. fully transitions to a strategic clarity policy and officially declares it will defend Taiwan in an emergency, China’s military provocations are expected to intensify. However, even within U.S. political circles, given the political burden ahead of the midterm elections, it is uncertain whether such a radical strategic shift will occur.

According to CNN, it is unclear whether the Taiwan Policy Act (TPA) currently under review in the U.S. Congress will pass during this session. When the TPA bill was referred to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee in July, the White House requested further review. Subsequently, the bill’s consideration was delayed as legislation allowing Finland and Sweden to join NATO was prioritized.

◇U.S. Asian Allies at a Crossroads

[Image source=Yonhap News]

If the U.S. considers Taiwan an ally and directly defends it in the event of a Chinese invasion, major U.S. allies in Asia such as South Korea and Japan are expected to be affected by the war. Although there is no obligation under mutual defense treaties to participate in Taiwan’s defense, it would be difficult to ignore U.S. requests for support.

According to Voice of America (VOA), the mutual defense treaty between South Korea and the U.S. includes provisions for automatic intervention if either country is attacked by a third party. However, Taiwan’s defense is not included in the treaty, so even if Taiwan is invaded by China, South Korea or other allies would not automatically participate in the conflict.

However, if U.S. forces stationed in South Korea are deployed to defend Taiwan, or if the U.S. government directly requests support from allies such as South Korea, direct or indirect repercussions are expected.

Some worry that North Korea might engage in localized conflict to keep U.S. forces tied down on the Korean Peninsula. In such a case, the U.S. would face the worst-case scenario of having to respond simultaneously to Taiwan and the Korean Peninsula.

The U.S. side is also likely to request support from South Korea in an emergency. On the 19th, General Paul LaCamera, commander of U.S. Forces Korea, attended a virtual forum hosted by the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS) and, when asked if he hoped for South Korea’s military support in the event of a Taiwan emergency, replied, "I cannot disagree with that statement. However, each ally has the right to have its own opinion, and ultimately it is a matter for the Korean people to decide."

He added, "We are preparing for the impact on the Korean Peninsula and U.S. Forces Korea in the event of a Taiwan emergency and are developing contingency plans. The ripple effects of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan may not be confined to one region and could spread rapidly throughout the region and the world."

◇U.S. Secretary of State Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to Meet

[Image source=Reuters Yonhap News]

Meanwhile, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese State Councilor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi are scheduled to meet in New York on the 23rd (local time).

This meeting comes about two months after their five-hour talks at the G20 Foreign Ministers’ Meeting held in Bali, Indonesia, in July. Taiwan is expected to be a key issue in this meeting as well.

On the 19th, Wang Yi also met with former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger and said, "The urgent task is to properly control the Taiwan issue; otherwise, it will have a game-changing impact on U.S.-China relations."