'Earth Defense' US-China Asteroid Experiment... Actually a Diabolical Weapon? [Reading Science]

US to Conduct Asteroid Impact Experiment on 27th Korea Time Morning
China to Launch Similar Experiment Around 2025-26
'Earth Defense' Project Emphasized for Asteroid Impact Prevention
Some Suspect Research on 'Catastrophic' Weapon Development

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] As the United States and China compete to conduct asteroid experiments under the pretext of 'planetary defense,' some concerns are emerging. There are suspicions that they might be trying to develop 'devilish weapons' capable of devastating each other. The actual power of asteroids is beyond imagination. In 2013, an asteroid about 20 meters in diameter exploded over Chelyabinsk in central Russia, turning a small city into ruins.

The United States is leading the way. According to NASA on the 22nd (local time), the DART (Double Asteroid Redirection Test), the first-ever experiment to impact a small moving celestial body to change its trajectory, will be conducted on the 26th afternoon (Korean time, 7:17 a.m. on the 27th). NASA launched the approximately 610 kg DART spacecraft last November for this purpose. The target is Dimorphos, a satellite of the asteroid Didymos, located about 11 million kilometers from Earth near Jupiter.

NASA emphasizes this experiment as a 'planetary defense project,' citing the movie 'Armageddon.' It is research to prepare for the possible threat of an asteroid colliding with Earth. About 65 million years ago, a large asteroid about 10 km in diameter struck the Yucatan Peninsula in Mexico, causing the extinction of the dinosaurs that dominated Earth at the time. Given recent cases like Chelyabinsk, preparation is necessary. The budget allocated for this is about 400 billion KRW. NASA expects that if the DART spacecraft collides with Dimorphos, which is about 160 meters in diameter, its speed will change, potentially delaying the orbital period of its parent asteroid Didymos around the sun by several minutes. The pre- and post-impact process will be recorded by the LICIACube satellite, produced by the Italian Space Agency, which will separate just before impact.

Preparations are progressing smoothly. The DART spacecraft is currently close to its target near Jupiter. NASA separated the LICIACube satellite on the 15th, and on the same day, released images of Jupiter and its moon Europa taken by DRACO, a high-performance camera mounted on the DART spacecraft. The DART spacecraft will use an autopilot system that utilizes images of Jupiter and Europa taken by DRACO to locate and collide with the target asteroid Dimorphos. Additionally, around 2024, the European Space Agency (ESA) plans to launch the spacecraft Hera for on-site investigation.

However, an unexpected development occurred. China, which is still far behind despite its 'space rise,' suddenly announced it would conduct a similar experiment under the banner of 'protecting Earth.' The China National Space Administration revealed at the National Space Day event in April that it plans to conduct such an experiment between 2025 and 2026. It also plans to establish an early warning system to identify and respond to threats from near-Earth objects. The target asteroid is known as 202PN1, a small asteroid about 40 meters in diameter first discovered in 2020.

People who initially thought the U.S. was just doing a 'crazy thing' by sending an expensive spacecraft to collide with an asteroid are now surprised. Scientists acknowledge that asteroids pose a potential threat but believe there is no significant risk of a large asteroid colliding with Earth in the next 100 years. Most asteroids of considerable size burn up upon entering the atmosphere, becoming meteors. About 23,000 asteroids near Earth have been identified, and among them, approximately 2,000 are estimated to be over 150 meters in diameter, large enough to pose a threat even after atmospheric entry. Among these, four asteroids?Apophis, Bennu (101955 Bennu), 1950 DA, and 2007 FT3?are considered relatively high-risk and are closely monitored whenever they approach Earth. However, NASA recently announced that Apophis's orbit has become irregular, eliminating the possibility of collision with Earth within the next 100 years. Apophis will approach Earth to about 37,000 km in April 2029. Bennu will approach Earth in 2182, with a collision probability of 1 in 2,700.

Scene of the 'asteroid' explosion that fell in Yunnan, China
[Image source=Yonhap News]

Given this situation, why are the U.S. and China investing enormous budgets in this seemingly 'random' planetary defense project? The U.S. cites not only the 'scientific experiment' of changing an asteroid's orbit but also gains in deep space navigation technology, testing of the latest solar power generation devices, and cutting-edge xenon engine tests. However, some suspect that the U.S. and China might be attempting to 'weaponize' asteroids. There could be a long-term intention to develop technology that alters an asteroid's trajectory stealthily to deliberately collide it with an adversary's territory. In fact, some scientists consider asteroid manipulation as the most powerful space weapon.

In this context, the U.S. defense science and technology magazine THE DEBRIEF attracted attention by publishing an article on this suspicion shortly after the DART spacecraft launch in late November last year. The article reported that some experts, including Thomas Bania, an astronomy professor at Boston University, believe that asteroid weaponization is theoretically possible. They suggest that landing on an asteroid and installing a propulsion system could change its orbit to intentionally collide with Earth. Even without a propulsion system, it might be possible to use a mass driver invented by Gerard O'Neill, a physics professor at Princeton University, which is an electromagnetic super-large accelerator that launches objects in space using linear motors, similar to railguns or coilguns developed for military use. Martin Connors, an astronomy professor at Athabasca University in Canada, also supports the possibility of asteroid weaponization. He cited the Cold War-era 'Rod of God' as an example, stating to the magazine, "Weaponizing asteroids or objects in Earth's orbit is theoretically possible."

▲Asteroid TC4 is approaching Earth. [Photo by NASA]

However, there are many challenges. Finding an asteroid of appropriate size, quickly transporting it near Earth, and accurately aiming and colliding with the target all require years of precise planning and execution. Moreover, hitting the exact target point while Earth is rotating and overcoming atmospheric interference is a difficult technology. Landing on an asteroid to attach propulsion devices or stealth equipment to approach undetected are still matters for movies. NASA reviewed an asteroid capture scenario in the early 2010s but abandoned it due to technical difficulties and shifted to the DART project. Professor Connors said, "All operations must be performed precisely, so the actual use prospects are very difficult," but added, "The most appropriate strategy might be to capture a relatively small asteroid about 10 meters in diameter and place it in a high Earth orbit, which could serve as a deterrent against adversaries."

The magazine concluded on asteroid weaponization by stating, "While theoretically possible, there is still a long way to go to achieve the actual conditions," and pointed out, "Asteroids are very effective and catastrophic weapons, but there are many problems to solve to acquire them."