Today, We Make Wishes... But 15 Years Later, the Moon Will Be Habitable [Reading Science]

Global Lunar Exploration and Development Plans 'Rush'
Long-term Lunar Habitation Plans Post-2035
Resource Utilization Expected to Impact Economic and Security Sectors

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] Today (the 10th) around 7 p.m., the full harvest moon of Chuseok will rise. In the past, it was an imaginary space where jars or rabbits played. Even nowadays, some people make wishes while looking at the Chuseok full moon. However, in about 10 years, it is expected to become a living space for humanity. Lunar bases will be constructed, serving as a foothold for space exploration such as Mars missions, and will play an economically important role in valuable resource extraction and medical experiments. In particular, in January next year, Korea’s first lunar exploration orbiter, Danuri, is scheduled to enter a 100 km orbit above the moon and carry out its mission.

◇ Lunar Base Construction in the 2030s

According to the Korea Aerospace Research Institute on the 10th, major space powers such as the United States and China are pushing forward plans for manned lunar base construction and resource utilization in the 2030s. The International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG), composed of 26 countries, announced in its 2020 lunar exploration roadmap that humanity will re-land on the moon around 2024, and by 2030, lunar surface exploration, securing mobility means, construction of the Lunar Gateway, long-term habitation, and Mars exploration preparations will be underway. From 2040, it is expected that humans will live and operate on the moon for extended periods. Countries promoting the International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) plan to select sites through resource and terrain surveys by 2025 and establish Earth-moon transportation systems, lunar scientific facilities, and in-situ resource utilization technology verification facilities by 2035. From 2035 onwards, they plan to intensify scientific experiments and manned exploration using the ILRS.

Investments by each country are also rapidly increasing. The total government budget for lunar exploration worldwide is expected to increase 3.8 times from about $800 million in 2019 to $3 billion in 2029. The number of lunar exploration programs (satellites or landers weighing over 50 kg) surged 7.3 times from 7 in 2010?2019 to 51 in 2020?2029. The Earth-moon transportation market size is projected to reach a cumulative $79 billion from 2021 to 2040, and the lunar in-situ resource utilization market is also expected to reach a cumulative $63 billion during the same period.

◇ Why Go?

Experts first see sufficient economic and industrial value in the moon. The presence of water, oxygen, and hydrogen necessary for launch vehicle fuel and manned activities has been confirmed, and significant deposits of rare earth elements and titanium exist. Utilizing the moon for space missions such as Mars exploration can reduce transportation costs and secure exploration efficiency based on reuse, and countries that first build infrastructure on the moon will have priority in resource acquisition. Conducting deep space communication, space observation and navigation systems, energy production, and scientific research missions on the moon can be much more efficient than on Earth.

In particular, as countries around the world are likely to clash over lunar resources in the future, proactive measures require going first. Currently, the 1967 United Nations Outer Space Treaty and the 1979 Moon Agreement signed by 18 countries do not recognize sovereignty or ownership. However, there is no effective international agreement or regulation that has a practical impact on who holds the rights to extract, export, and process lunar resources. It is pointed out that current lunar exploration is valuable to protect national strategic interests in lunar resources, secure space technology security, and enhance national power and external leadership. In fact, the United States recognized commercial companies’ rights to extract and own space resources in 2015, stating that resource extraction does not violate treaties. Luxembourg took similar measures in 2020 to promote space mining startups.

◇ Challenges Remain

Although water and resources exist on the moon, they are limited to specific locations just like on Earth. The lawlessness seen during the American Westward Expansion’s Gold Rush era could be repeated on the moon. This is why the United Nations is currently discussing international norms for resource extraction and utilization in space through multinational consultations. However, the 21 Artemis Agreement countries led by the United States have already established basic rules for lunar resource extraction and utilization. Meanwhile, China and Russia are pursuing independent manned lunar exploration and base construction, acting separately.

There are also technical barriers. Unlike Earth, the lunar regolith consists of fine, dense dust, making excavation unusually difficult. A famous anecdote recounts that astronauts during the Apollo 11 landing in 1969 were flustered because they could not properly collect lunar samples for this reason. From Apollo 15 onwards, mining drills were used, and only by Apollo 17 did they manage to dig 3 meters deep to install a heat flow sensor. Moreover, developing and demonstrating various technologies for in-situ utilization remains a major challenge.