[Exclusive] Korean Launch Vehicle Reuse Technology Will Take 20 Years to Catch Up with the US [Reading Science]

KARI Paper: "Recyclable Launch Vehicle Technology Virtually Nonexistent, Possible Only by 2040"
"SpaceX Dominates Launch Vehicle Market with Falcon 9, the First Stage Reusable Commercialized Rocket"

[Image source=Yonhap News]

[Asia Economy Reporter Kim Bong-su] Although South Korea secured space launch vehicle technology by successfully launching the ‘Nuriho,’ it appears that the core technology for future space industry development?reusable launch vehicle technology?is still far from being realized. A study has revealed that it will take another 20 years to catch up with the launch vehicle technology of the U.S. private space company SpaceX.

◇Secured Space Launch Vehicle Technology but...

According to the Korea Aerospace Research Institute (KARI) on the 7th, in August, KARI research team led by Principal Researcher Lee Ki-joo published a paper titled ‘Exploratory Study for Securing Reusable Launch Vehicle Technology,’ presenting this analysis. The paper states that globally, in the era of ‘New Space,’ reusable launch vehicle technology is being actively developed to reduce costs and secure economic feasibility.

Elon Musk’s SpaceX routinely reuses the first stage of its Falcon 9 launch vehicle, lowering the launch cost per kilogram to an average of around $2,000, dominating the global launch vehicle market. Other private companies such as Jeff Bezos’s Blue Origin, as well as Japan, China, and Europe, are also actively developing reusable launch vehicles.

The research team analyzed in the paper, “SpaceX is dominating the commercial launch market by significantly lowering launch costs,” and “the paradigm of space transportation is shifting from expendable to reusable.” On the other hand, although South Korea succeeded in launching Nuriho in June, it has no commercial competitiveness due to high launch costs. Excluding development costs, the launch cost per kilogram for Nuriho is about $32,500, roughly ten times that of Falcon 9. Securing reusable launch vehicle technology as soon as possible is essential to survive in the increasingly competitive global commercial launch vehicle market and in space exploration competitions such as lunar exploration, resource acquisition, and space solar power generation.

Falcon 9 by SpaceX (Photo by Elon Musk, CEO, Twitter)

◇Researchers: "Reusable Launch Vehicle by 2040"

The problem is that considering the current level of South Korea’s technology and research and development (R&D) status, it will take about 20 years. The research team viewed that South Korea’s research on reusable launch vehicle technology is virtually nonexistent. Although basic technology research such as engine reignition was conducted during the existing Nuriho development process, and guidance navigation control technology was developed under the government’s Space Challenge project, some reusable launch vehicle technologies have been researched. However, as the Nuriho development project was delayed beyond schedule, and the next-generation launch vehicle development project was put on hold in the preliminary feasibility study last year, there was no direct effort to secure reusable technology through demonstration vehicle development.

There are many challenges. Developing a reusable launch vehicle requires the development of numerous difficult core technologies such as guidance control for return flight, grid fins for directional control and stability during landing, landing gear, reusable engines, thermal protection, fairing reuse, and ground support systems and operations for landing.

The research team pointed out, “After reviewing KARI’s internal strategy documents and ongoing or planned domestic development projects, it appears that propulsion system technologies such as reignition and thrust control are not yet sufficiently mature to immediately proceed with demonstration vehicle development.”

Ultimately, considering these circumstances, the research team concluded that South Korea will need until around 2040 to secure reusable launch vehicles at the level of SpaceX’s Falcon 9. The team stated, “Through additional Nuriho launches from this year until 2027 (Korean launch vehicle advancement project) and the currently re-initiated preliminary feasibility study for the next-generation launch vehicle development project, the maturity of related technologies must be sufficiently secured. Based on this, if high-altitude return flight research for reusable technology verification is pursued by 2031, test flights can be conducted from 2035, and reusable launch services can be secured around 2040.”