Lee Jae-myung Walking the 'Moon Jae-in Path'?..."The Conditions Were Different from the Start"

Similar Political Trajectory of Running for Party Leader After Presidential Defeat
Running for Party Leader Without Political Hiatus
Expectations for Party Reorganization by Chinmyeong Faction
High Political Costs Due to Early Candidacy

[Asia Economy Reporter Naju-seok] There is much analysis that Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, is following the "path of Moon Jae-in" in his political trajectory. After losing the presidential election, he took control of the party leadership and plans to use victory in the general election as a stepping stone for a presidential re-challenge. Is Lee Jae-myung truly following the path of former President Moon?

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Is Lee Jae-myung Following Moon Jae-in's Path?

First, there are many actual similarities between former President Moon and Lee Jae-myung’s political paths, such as taking party leadership after losing a presidential election. Both were strong presidential candidates but lost. Moreover, both gained government experience?Moon as Chief of Staff to the President, and Lee as Governor of Gyeonggi Province.

Additionally, after winning the 19th general election, Moon served on the Planning and Finance Committee and later on the Defense Committee in the latter half of the term. His activity on the Defense Committee was a process to gain security experience, interpreted as a form of royal study. Lee, who entered the latter half of the National Assembly through a by-election, also chose the Defense Committee as his standing committee.

Furthermore, both became party leaders who could exercise nomination rights for the general election during their terms. This power allows them to firmly control the party and lay groundwork for the presidential election through talent recruitment. Despite being the undisputed presidential candidate, the reason Lee had to take political risks and run for party leadership may ultimately come down to this nomination power.

However, there are clear differences between Moon and Lee’s political trajectories. After losing the presidential election, Moon remained a member of the National Assembly and only took party leadership after the party convention on February 8, 2015. He stayed out of the spotlight for about two years after his defeat. In contrast, Lee took on the role of chief election strategist in the June local elections and was elected party leader at the party convention on August 28 this year. Except for a brief period of political withdrawal immediately after the presidential loss, Lee has been continuously active in the political forefront without stepping back.

This difference can carry significant meaning.

Is Moon Jae-in's Path a Formula for Presidential Victory?

After losing to former President Park Geun-hye, Moon stepped aside from frontline politics. During this period, the Democratic Party (then New Politics Alliance for Democracy) was dominated by pro-Moon factions, but party leadership was held by non-mainstream figures like former leader Kim Han-gil (currently Chair of the National Integration Committee). The party experienced chronic conflicts between mainstream and non-mainstream factions. When Moon eventually took party leadership, these conflicts intensified. Particularly, concerns over purging Honam region members led to successive defections, including that of Ahn Cheol-soo, exposing the party to crisis.

Former President Moon Jae-in and his wife, Mrs. Kwon Yang-sook, along with other distinguished guests, are cutting the ribbon at the opening ceremony of the "Awakened Citizens Cultural Experience Exhibition Hall" held on the morning of the 1st in Bongha Village, Jinyeong-eup, Gimhae City, Gyeongnam Province.
This exhibition hall, which serves as a memorial for former President Roh Moo-hyun, opened in time for the former president's solar birthday (September 1). [Image source=Yonhap News]

Moon himself mentioned "three life-or-death hurdles" during the party leadership race. He said, "If I do not become party leader, fail to revive the party, or fail to lead the general election to victory, I will have no further chances." This expressed the urgency of reorganizing the party to win the general election and challenge for the presidency. However, the party faced severe division, teetering on the edge of collapse.

Ultimately, Moon resigned as party leader before completing his term, appointing Dr. Kim Jong-in as the party’s emergency committee chairman. The Democratic Party’s subsequent general election victory occurred under Kim’s leadership. Yet, even in that victory, the party was shunned by its core support base in Honam. The People’s Party, formed by defectors who had clashed with Moon, effectively dominated Honam.

Lee Jae-myung's Path Differs from Moon Jae-in's

In contrast, Lee stepped into the political forefront immediately after his election defeat. This structure makes it difficult for opposition factions within the party to gain strength against him. Due to this difference, Lee has secured a position to firmly control the Democratic Party and lead the political landscape after the presidential election.

[Image source=Yonhap News]

Another difference is that Lee was not part of the party mainstream, unlike Moon. However, political circles widely agree that through this recent party convention, the pro-Lee faction (Chin-myeong) is becoming the mainstream within the Democratic Party. Rather than being mainstream from the start, Lee is rising to mainstream status through the convention. Go Min-jung, the only non-Lee faction Supreme Council member, commented in an interview with a media outlet, "It seems we are witnessing a major generational shift where the pro-Moon majority is becoming pro-Lee." This clearly shows the process of pro-Lee rising as the party mainstream.

For Lee, the advantage of early political re-entry after the presidential election is the ability to seize party leadership. While the absence of a political hiatus can strengthen party control and public attention, it may also lead to political fatigue during subsequent governance. Early entry increases the innings a pitcher must endure, similarly increasing the physical burden. Historically, presidential candidates who lost have taken political breaks for various reasons. They risk being embroiled in controversies over election rejection and direct clashes with the government and ruling party, which could weaken their political capital for the next presidential bid. Enduring intense scrutiny for five years is quite long.

Practically, besides the long period remaining until the next presidential election, Lee faces the three hurdles Moon mentioned. Having only overcome the first hurdle of party leadership election, two remain: party reform and winning the general election. Additionally, judicial risks also pose political threats to Lee.