[Defense Commentary] What Are the Chances of a US-China Military Conflict?

[Monthly Aviation Editor-in-Chief Kim Jae-han] The conflict between the United States and China over the Taiwan issue is intensifying. Not only have there been military demonstrations between the two countries, but recent exchanges of words have become harsh, including terms like "scared bully" and "playing with fire." In fact, some have even mentioned "war at all costs," raising concerns among security experts about the possibility of a large-scale military clash between the two nations.

Escalating US-China Tensions

A recent example reflecting the atmosphere between the two countries was Speaker of the US House Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan in early August. Immediately after Pelosi's visit, China conducted a military demonstration near the Taiwan Strait, deploying over 100 military aircraft, around 10 naval vessels, as well as missiles and long-range artillery.

During this process, about 20 Chinese military aircraft, including H-6 bombers, J-16, J-11, Su-30 fighters, and Y-8 maritime patrol aircraft, intruded into Taiwan's Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ). Some fighters even crossed the median line of the Taiwan Strait, which the US set to prevent military clashes, further raising tensions. Notably, China launched ballistic missiles flying over Taiwan's airspace and conducted long-range ground target strike drills at sea and in the air, showcasing combat capabilities reminiscent of actual warfare.

Previously, the two countries had also exchanged harsh diplomatic rhetoric. Particularly on June 10, during the 19th Security Conference (Shangri-La Dialogue) held in Singapore, the US-China Defense Ministers' Meeting featured sharp exchanges. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin pointed out that "China's actions are undermining security, stability, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific region," to which Chinese Defense Minister Wei Fenghe retorted, "If anyone tries to split Taiwan, the Chinese military will definitely not hesitate to fight." China has previously used aggressive language such as "playing with fire will lead to death" and "heads will be smashed and blood will flow."

Possibility of Large-Scale US-China Military Clash?

Despite the harsh words and military demonstrations escalating tensions, security experts generally assess that the possibility of a large-scale military clash is low. An expert from a national research institute stated, "Even if a military clash occurs, both countries do not want it to escalate into a full-scale war," adding, "Considering that war or military conflict is also part of negotiations or political acts between countries over interests, ultimately, both countries will manage the situation through negotiations to prevent military clashes from escalating to the worst."

Militarily, analyses suggest that China's invasion of Taiwan would not be easy. The Taiwan Strait, which lies between China and Taiwan, poses a significant obstacle for China. The closest distance across the strait is approximately 128 km. China must safely cross this waterway and land on Taiwan to succeed in a military operation.

The Institute of Foreign Affairs and National Security at the Korea National Diplomatic Academy recently published , predicting that China would first consider the likelihood of success when deciding on an invasion of Taiwan. However, the report analyzed that it would be very difficult for a limited number of Chinese landing forces to break through Taiwan's numerically superior and well-prepared defensive lines. Moreover, the approximately 14 possible landing beaches, Taiwan's strong defenses on these coasts, and frequent adverse weather conditions in the Taiwan Strait such as strong winds, waves, fog, and strong currents make China's invasion even more challenging.

Especially, the report noted that for China to succeed in a landing operation, it must maintain air superiority around Taiwan, but this is unlikely due to US involvement. For example, in the early stages of a military clash, US stealth fighters such as the F-22 and F-35 are likely to attack Chinese vessels attempting landing operations and key ground targets. Additionally, US carrier strike groups and land-based fighters gathered near Taiwan are expected to dominate air superiority, making China's landing operation a daunting objective.

The US's overwhelming naval superiority is also expected to hinder China's invasion of Taiwan. According to the report, although China has prioritized strengthening its navy recently by building new destroyers and frigates, the US maintains a firm naval superiority compared to China. In particular, attack nuclear submarines accompanying carrier strike groups are likely to inflict significant damage on Chinese fleets attempting landing operations, the report predicted.

However, according to some forecasts, a large-scale military clash is possible. In March last year, Philip Davidson, then Commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, testified before the US Congress that "China's invasion of Taiwan could become a reality within six years." Furthermore, on July 20, William Burns, Director of the US Central Intelligence Agency, stated at the Aspen Security Forum in Colorado that "China is watching the Ukraine situation and will decide the timing and method of invading Taiwan."

As these predictions continue, not only Taiwan but also US allies in the Indo-Pacific region, including South Korea, are closely monitoring the relationship between the two countries.

Can the US Respond to China and Russia Simultaneously?

Meanwhile, if a large-scale military clash occurs between the US and China, there is growing interest in whether the US, currently supporting Ukraine, can handle two conflicts simultaneously. Regarding this, Robert Pally, a security expert and professor at the University of Kentucky, assessed that the US would be able to respond adequately even if China invades Taiwan.

According to Professor Pally, the US's response to the Ukraine situation and the Taiwan issue is expected to differ. That is, the US is likely to intervene directly in the Taiwan issue but respond to the Ukraine situation through arms support alongside NATO member countries, as it does now. This means the US can concentrate its core military forces, including carrier strike groups, advanced fighters, and strategic bombers, on Taiwan.

However, if the Ukraine situation escalates into a military clash between NATO and Russia, the US would have to conduct two wars simultaneously, which is naturally a burdensome scenario for the US. Professor Pally analyzed that since other NATO members possess military power, especially superior air and naval forces compared to Russia, the US would be able to deploy its core military forces to the region even if China invades Taiwan. Moreover, Professor Pally predicts that the US would prioritize the Taiwan issue over the Ukraine situation.

Responses of Asian Allies?

If China invades Taiwan, the responses of Indo-Pacific allies will also be a focus, as their reactions could influence the overall situation. The countries to watch first are Japan, Australia, and India, which form the US-led security consultative framework (QUAD). Since this consultative body was established to check China, the Taiwan issue is a major diplomatic and security matter for these countries as well.

Regarding this, Jo Won-deuk, a research professor at the ASEAN-India Research Center of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy, predicts that the level of response from these countries will vary depending on their national diplomatic strategies. First, Japan is expected to support the US as a security ally if China invades Taiwan, considering that the Taiwan issue is linked to the East China Sea issue and that Japan strongly condemned China's ballistic missile landing in its Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in early August.

Professor Jo said, "Japan does not want China to dominate Asia and place the region under its hegemony or sphere of influence," adding, "Japan's Indo-Pacific strategy may also be part of a self-help measure to retain the US's involvement in Asia, which had been weakening, to check China."

Australia maintains a broad stance of checking China, but attention is focused on changes in its China diplomacy policy since the new Labor Party Prime Minister Anthony Albanese took office in May. Professor Jo noted, "Since Albanese is from the Labor Party, there may be some differences from the previous Scott Morrison government's policy," and predicted, "If a military clash occurs between the US and China, Australia will support the US as an ally in some form, but the scope and degree may be somewhat limited compared to Japan."

Unlike Japan and Australia, India, which does not have a military alliance with the US, seems unlikely to engage in military cooperation with the US regarding the Taiwan issue. Professor Jo said, "India considers its sphere of influence and battlefield to be the Indian Ocean at sea and the Indian subcontinent inland," adding, "Given its border with China, if a military clash occurs in the South China Sea or Taiwan Strait, India is expected not to engage in direct military cooperation or intervention but to maintain a passive response or principled stance."

Meanwhile, the South Korean government currently maintains cooperation with the US on the Taiwan issue. On August 17, the two countries held the 21st Korea-US Integrated Defense Dialogue (KIDD), reaffirming the importance of adhering to a "rules-based international order" based on international law and norms, including freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea and other maritime areas. In particular, both countries emphasized the importance of maintaining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait and agreed to continue enhancing defense and security cooperation in the Indo-Pacific region. However, if the US and China actually engage in military conflict over the Taiwan issue, it is expected to be a significant burden for the South Korean government, which has maintained a "strategic ambiguity" diplomacy toward both countries.